Google’s earthquake early warning system did not effectively alert millions during the catastrophic earthquakes that struck Turkey on February 6, 2023. The company’s failure to provide timely and accurate notifications raised serious concerns about the reliability of its technology in life-threatening situations.
On that fateful morning, the first earthquake registered a magnitude of 7.8, striking at 04:17 AM local time when many residents were asleep. Google’s system only succeeded in getting 469 of these “Take Action” alerts out to users after the first quake. During the response to the second major earthquake, the system lit up. It delivered “Take Action” alerts to 8,158 unique phones and sent “Be Aware” notifications to almost 4 million users. Google created an incredible 10 million “Take Action” alerts for people in the most immediate danger. On top of that, they sent out 67 million “Be Aware” notices for people living farther away from the epicenter.
Millions of people living in and around 98 miles of the epicenter did not receive an important maximum possible level alert. This alert would have provided them with at least 35 seconds to find safety. Google has since acknowledged that its earthquake early warning system did not provide the right warning to correctly alert people during this tragic incident.
One of the largest impacts from these earthquakes were more than 55,000 fatalities and over 100,000 people injured in South East Turkey. However, as a BBC investigation recently uncovered, there were no documented instances of anyone getting a high-impact “Take Action” alert prior to the first tremor. This ineffectiveness has led some experts—to say nothing of the American public—to doubt the integrity of the system.
Elizabeth Reddy, an Assistant Professor at the Colorado School of Mines, is tired of it. As of this writing, she is still awaiting information regarding Google’s early warning system. She stated, “I’m really frustrated that it took so long.”
Experts say transparency is necessary to fairly judge these kinds of systems. Harold Tobin, Director of the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network, highlighted, “I think being very transparent about how well it works is absolutely critical.” He further questioned whether other regions might rely on Google’s system and neglect their own preparedness efforts by asking, “Would some places make the calculation that Google’s doing it, so we don’t have to?”
In response to that criticism, a Google spokesperson cited the challenges common to all earthquake early warning systems. They noted, “Every earthquake early warning system grapples with the same challenge – tuning algorithms for large magnitude events.” The spokesperson assured that Google remains committed to enhancing its alert systems based on lessons learned from each earthquake event, claiming, “We continue to improve the system based on what we learn in each earthquake.”
The weaknesses of Google’s earthquake alert system were laid bare during Turkey’s deadly earthquakes earlier this year. This event has heightened calls for better, more impactful, and more trustworthy technologies to deliver life-saving warnings ahead of future earthquakes. Even as everyone processes the incident and what it means, experts are urgently examining the failure. It exemplifies the harmful consequences of not having rigorous testing in place and transparent communication regarding new early warning systems.