Grocery prices in the United States have seen significant fluctuations recently, prompting questions about the future impact of tariff rollbacks on food affordability. As of September, grocery prices climbed 2.7% during the past year, adding to a feeding frenzy of consumer anxiety. That’s on top of an extraordinary 11.4% increase in 2022. It does not stop there, with another 5% increase in 2023. The Trump administration has acknowledged the complexity of correcting high food prices, suggesting that any changes may take time to materialize.
Prices of food at home in the U.S. have actually gotten more stable over the years. From 2013 to 2021, they averaged less than a 2% increase annually. Yet in recent years, dramatic increases in price have shocked families across the country. Food costs have quickly become one of the largest, if not the largest, line items in their budgets. According to the Union of Concerned Scientists, over 80 percent of food imports from Mexico have tariff exemptions. Experts say these exemptions are unlikely to move the needle on prices.
In fact, U.S. imports represent under 20% of what consumers buy in food and beverages. This type of tariff rollback provides immediate relief by reducing costs for some finished products. They are not likely to produce any profound changes nationally. Sean Cash, a professor of food economics, remarked, “You will certainly see it on certain products,” but he tempered expectations by stating, “I don’t think we’re going to see a lot in terms of the average price of groceries coming down.”
The impacts of tariff exemptions are less straightforward. They’re contingent upon a number of other factors, including border inspection costs, washing costs, trucking fees, and labor. These supplementary costs can add up quickly, driving up the retail cost that consumers face at the grocery store. Anthony Serafino, a grocery industry professional, emphasized, “We were just passing through costs. We’re not going to keep prices elevated just to keep prices elevated.” This indicates that even if tariffs are causing changes in prices, other fundamental operational costs continue to be an important driver.
Cutting tariffs would be an easy way to relieve some inflationary pressures. All of that, experts caution, will take at least weeks to translate into visible changes in grocery aisles. The dynamic nature of pricing resembles a “tide,” according to Sylvain Charlebois, who explained that “the tide goes up, it leaves a mark on the dock and that line remains.” Today’s unprecedented high prices will inevitably shape what decisions consumers and retailers make moving forward.
The Budget Lab at Yale has projected that Trump’s tariffs this year could increase food prices by approximately 1.9% in the short term. This projection adds to the pessimistic story on tariff rollbacks as consumers continue to look for any indication of relief.