Hamas, the militant group locked in an almost 75-year conflict with Israel, is stunningly having one of its worst military defeats. News reports have suggested that Hamas militants in Israel fought to take the remains of 25-year-old Abraham Azulay. Israeli security forces managed to foil their plan, successfully preventing their attack. This unusual operation sheds light on Hamas’s continuing struggle to preserve its operational effectiveness. Sadly, more than half of its military force is thought to be deceased.
For more than 20 years, Hamas has waged asymmetric insurgent-style warfare in its battles against Israel. Looking at the organization today, you would never know that home might be facing a radical turnaround. As of late 2023, virtually all of Hamas’s senior- and mid-level military leaders who were active prior to October 7 have been eliminated, shattering the organization’s command structure. Despite these challenges, Hamas maintains a network of envoys, officials, clandestine operatives, and sympathizers across the Islamic world and beyond, which continues to provide crucial funding.
Hamas’s military strength has been significantly reduced. Yet, the group remains able to coordinate smoothly between its military commanders in Gaza and its political leadership, which is headquartered outside of Gaza in Doha, Qatar, and Istanbul, Turkey. This dual structure leadership ensures that national and regional strategic planning can still happen, while nationwide ground operations are drastically restricted. Hamas has been using no more than “a few hundred” fighters in Gaza, according to reports. Yet this small number is sufficient for them to accomplish their short-term strategic objectives.
The group’s interest in entering ceasefire negotiations, a signal of its vulnerable position. Hamas wants a ceasefire badly but is adamant it should not be at any price. The negotiations, according to reports, have involved the release of 28 hostages, an action that could strengthen Hamas’s bargaining power. Analysts point out that this move accomplishes two objectives.
“It’s not just about gaining a card to play in negotiations but is a key part of the psychological battle. Hamas aims to boost their own fighters and demoralize both Israeli soldiers in Gaza and civilians in Israel.” – Qatar-based Palestinian analyst
The battlefield picture has changed dramatically in recent months. As Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) are learning in their current conflict, when the environment is heavily into complex rubble and urban warfare, Hamas knows how to leverage those conditions.
“It’s a very complicated battlefield for the IDF. Hamas are taking advantage of all the rubble. They are experts in guerrilla warfare and have been fighting Israel for 20 years.” – Guy Aviad
Beyond the humanitarian imperative, Hamas is experiencing profound operational challenges. Their current strategy of attritional warfare further muddies the waters and manipulates public perception both at home and abroad.
“We are now seeing a form of attritional warfare which is placing some limits on Israel’s power and is also having some effect on public opinion across the world.” – Hamayel
Despite significant losses, Hamas seems to be telegraphing its desire to return to fighting mode. Some experts suggest that the group may release captives as part of ceasefire negotiations while simultaneously planning to capture more hostages.
“Hamas may release captives to have a ceasefire, at least for now, but is also attempting to capture more … so is signaling that any agreement is not going to be a permanent end to the overall conflict.” – Abdeljawad Hamayel
This double-pronged tactic calls into question the legitimacy and effectiveness of Israel’s current strategy in combating Hamas.
“Here in Israel, we have had an experiment with the idea that more and more pressure on Hamas means they will [eventually] give up. Well, how much more pressure can you imagine?” – Michael Milstein
Moreover, even after failed attempts such as the one involving Azulay’s remains, analysts caution against underestimating Hamas’s resolve.
“This attempt failed. [But there is] no doubt Hamas will increase its attempts to take new hostages, including bodies of dead soldiers and civilians.” – Michael Milstein