Hobby Works also runs two other toy stores in Maryland. This holiday season, they are fighting some of the most severe headwinds thanks to an exponentially difficult economic climate. Michael Brey, the owner of Hobby Works, a president of the local independent business association, has made the unusual (ish) move to extend the traditional hiring schedule for seasonal workers. This decision is motivated by increasing tariff expenses, changes in economic policy and the effects of a recent federal government shutdown.
Notably, this year, Hobby Works is hiring 24 people. As the holiday season approaches, Brey is concerned that consumer spending could take a hit, particularly from federal workers, many of whom went more than a month without pay before the recent shutdown came to an end. With retailers now hesitant to hire seasonal staff, it’s more complicated. The National Retail Federation estimates that this year’s seasonal hiring will be the lowest since just after the 2008 recession.
The National Retail Federation estimates that retailers will hire between 265,000 and 365,000 seasonal workers this year alone. That is a big drop from last year’s overall high of 442,000 hires. That shying away from growth is evident in the general mood of labor market trepidation. Business as usual Magda’s colleague Allison Shrivastava, an economist with the Indeed Hiring Lab, characterized today’s labor market as frozen with frostbite. She noted that job postings this season have remained in line with 2022. Yet, more people have begun competing for the few slots offered.
Brey’s decision to postpone hiring is consistent with this pattern. He acknowledged that while “Hanukkah always happens, Christmas always comes,” this year marks a notable shift in their hiring strategy. “This is the first year we’re moving very slowly,” he remarked. The pressure to reduce expenses during a time of economic uncertainty has many retailers hesitant to make a staffing commitment.
With the holiday season approaching, many job seekers—such as Nicholas Strahl—are left in the lurch. Strahl stated, “At this point, I’m willing to take anything I can get,” reflecting the desperation felt by many individuals seeking seasonal employment. This sentiment resonates with Tanya Secord, who shared her frustration regarding rising living costs. “It was incredibly stressful because the price of groceries has gone up. The cost of living in general is ridiculous.”
The cumulative effect of the federal government shutdown has compounded an already difficult situation for retailers such as Hobby Works. This reinforces the idea that many members of our government workforce are in dire financial straits due to missed paychecks. Adding to worries is the threat of a significant decrease in consumer spending during the traditional holiday shopping season.
Lisa Simon, chief economist at Revelio, commented on the current hiring climate: “We’re just not seeing the usual pick-up in holiday hiring.” Similarly, Andy Challenger observed that “the cautious pace of announcements so far suggests that companies are not betting on a big seasonal surge.”
As Hobby Works deals with these economic challenges, Brey is optimistic but realistic as he prepares for the new season. He emphasized the importance of maintaining a balanced approach to hiring despite external factors: “We try not to alter our hiring patterns too much.” At the same time, he too understands that current economic realities will require them to rethink their longstanding ways of operating.