Consumer spending was remarkably strong for the last holiday season. After factoring in inflation, that’s a real increase of 0.3%—not bad given that high inflation is still very much with us. This spike occurs against a backdrop of continued worries about elevated prices that have already hampered consumer spending all year. Either way, economists were only looking for inflation to increase by 0.2% over October. They predicted a total increase of 2.8% for the year ending in November.
When the holiday shopping season really ramped up in November, consumers willingly spent. As demonstrated in many areas, they were still incredibly eager to spend and did, despite the financial pressures created by inflationary increases on prices. The day after Thanksgiving, on November 26, 2025, shoppers swarmed the newly reopened pedestrian market just steps from Rockefeller Center’s iconic Christmas tree in New York City. Their excitement for the cheerful anti-festive spirit was wonderful to behold and equally contagious.
Our new report illustrates these trends with new data through October. This data was already a long time coming due to a government shutdown. From the report’s executive summary, analysts noted that inflation continues to strain family budgets. The increase in consumer spending reveals a nuanced, incomplete picture of the delicate dance between consumer confidence and stubborn economic headwinds.
Even though economists were side-eyed in anticipating rising inflation, the national 0.3% uptick in consumer spending gave many a flicker of hope. Consumer behavior is changing with the times. No one can ignore the new economic reality that consumers are facing. Join continued market engagement. Despite escalating costs, they pushed ahead. The November shopping surge reflects a strategic approach to holiday spending, as many consumers may have planned their purchases around anticipated sales and promotions.
The continued impact of inflation on what consumers choose to spend their money on should not be discounted either. Soaring inflation in the cost of living has forced millions of Americans to rethink how they allocate their dollars and what is most important to them. Many consumers are shopping at dollar stores or switching to private labels to find savings that allow them to stretch their budgets.
The time leading up to the holiday season has always been an especially make-or-break moment for retailers, and 2022 was no exception. Passionate consumers at legendary sites such as Rockefeller Center are jumping with excitement. Their enthusiasm reflects a fighting spirit to make the most of this holiday season, despite increased economic challenges. Retailers have responded by enhancing their offerings and marketing strategies to attract customers, understanding that the holiday season can significantly impact annual revenues.
Looking ahead, economists will closely monitor how long consumers can maintain this spending momentum in the face of persistent inflation. The dynamic of increased pricing and reduced consumer confidence will be a key factor in determining where future economic predictions land.