President Donald Trump has swiftly moved to reshape the landscape of immigration in the United States since taking office in late January. His administration has announced a series of stringent policies, asserting that immigration is a major issue facing the nation. In a striking declaration, Trump stated his intention to deport "probably 15 million and maybe as many as 20 million" individuals, aiming to address what he perceives as a growing problem. However, while the White House positions immigration as a liability, economists and industry experts warn that such measures could backfire, potentially stifling economic growth and exacerbating labor shortages.
The backdrop to Trump's immigration crackdown is a complex tapestry of statistics and realities. According to the Census Bureau, approximately 2.8 million people immigrated to the United States legally last year. Despite the pandemic-induced decline in legal immigration during 2020, the numbers have rebounded sharply in subsequent years. As of 2023, the United States is home to 47.8 million immigrants, who collectively wield a remarkable $1.7 trillion in spending power and have contributed about $652 billion in taxes this year.
Trump's aggressive stance on immigration is underscored by his administration's consideration of invoking a public health order. This order would classify migrants at the southern border seeking asylum as potential carriers of disease. Such measures reflect a broader strategy aimed at curbing immigration while attempting to appease his base. However, Allianz Trade warns that if current trends continue, legal immigration could be cut nearly in half by 2026—a move that could precipitate a decline in population growth by 0.2% that year.
Economists express concern that Trump's policies could have significant implications for various sectors of the economy. Immigrants represent more than 20% of employment in critical industries such as agriculture, construction, transportation, warehousing, general services, and waste services. Jorge Loweree, an immigration expert, emphasized the importance of immigrant labor: "The reality is that we depend on immigrant labor in this country and Trump's policies could have enormous consequences for many industries."
As Trump's administration intensifies its crackdown on both legal and illegal immigration, the potential for labor shortages looms large. Giovanni Peri, an economist specializing in labor markets, stated that "these industries have very tight labor markets, so being very restrictive and aggressive on immigration is not going to give Trump that economic growth and success that he wants." He further noted that with an aging population leading to increased retirements, more immigration would be beneficial for the labor market and overall economic growth.
The impact of these changes is already evident in the immigration court system. Jennifer Babaie, an attorney specializing in immigration law, remarked on the challenges facing applicants: "It's going to be much more difficult for folks to apply for anything." She also highlighted the systemic issues exacerbated by reduced personnel and funding in immigration and customs enforcement: "We're expecting delays, both because personnel in the court has dropped and also because (immigration and customs) personnel and funding is at risk." Furthermore, she noted the extensive time attorneys are spending in detention centers due to a lack of information from the administration: "We're also now spending hours going into detention just trying to interview folks to understand what is going on because we're not getting any information or cooperation from the administration."
Looking ahead, experts anticipate that further restrictions will emerge as the summer approaches. David Bier, an analyst focused on immigration policy, predicted that "I expect we'll see further restrictions by the summer," adding urgency to concerns about labor shortages.