India and China, two of the world’s most populous nations, are cautiously exploring avenues to reset their long-strained ties amidst ongoing border disputes and geopolitical tensions. That re-engagement comes after a year’s worth of public confrontations that showed us all how tenuous their relationship was. Tensions along the volatile 3,440-kilometer (2,100-mile) border have stoked several wars and dozens of smaller skirmishes throughout history.
These tensions came to a head violently in June 2020 with a bloody clash in the Galwan Valley of Ladakh. The unusual violent confrontation resulted in the deaths of at least 20 Indian soldiers and four Chinese soldiers. The fall-out from this incident greatly escalated tensions between the two countries. In reply, India quickly retaliated by banning dozens of Chinese apps and limiting Chinese investments, claiming national security justifications. In retaliation, China enacted import that began April 2023, requiring firms to secure permits on select items.
Though these frictions continue to fester, both countries have recently made positive, albeit limited, moves in the direction of constructive dialogue. Late last year India and China struck a hard-fought deal intended to defuse some of the most serious flashpoints in Ladakh. This diplomatic effort signifies a mutual recognition of the need for stability, especially as both countries navigate their complex geopolitical landscapes.
Bilateral trade between India and China continues by all accounts to be booming, exceeding more than $127 billion (£93.4 billion) last year. India is now China’s second-largest trading partner while being completely dependent on China for some of the most critical goods, especially rare earth minerals. Yet recently, Beijing’s moves have begun to sound alarm bells in New Delhi. China is playing trade war games as a tool to pressure India. By cutting off critical exports including rare earth magnets and fertilizers, these initiatives could have far-reaching impacts on India’s manufacturing and agricultural sectors.
“In recent years, China has significantly increased its influence in other multilateral organizations like the SCO and the Brics grouping of emerging economies,” noted Phunchok Stobdan, an expert on Sino-Indian relations. This shift reflects China’s strategic localization on the global stage in an attempt to counterbalance the rising power of the West.
India is well aware of just how dependent it is on Chinese imports. It, too, is under intense domestic pressure to adopt a more severe posture towards Beijing. “At the same time, it does not want to be seen yielding too much to the Chinese demands for domestic reasons,” Stobdan added. This dangerous tightrope act makes India’s strategy of re-engagement with China all the more difficult.
In January 2023, the two countries made a historic move by signing a deal to reestablish direct flights. They likewise agreed to ease the visa restrictions enacted following the 2020 Galwan clash. Such measures indicate a cautious thawing in relations, though underlying tensions remain potent. China’s own distrust of Western countries’ attempts to use India to balance China’s rising power makes diplomatic progress even more difficult.
India’s long-time ally, Russia has only deepened its partnership with China. This reorientation is powered by Russia’s increasing reliance on Chinese energy imports as the war in Ukraine drags on. India is watching this development with great interest, especially in light of New Delhi’s own defense relationship with Moscow, observers say.
Delhi asserts that Arunachal Pradesh is an integral part of India, emphasizing that its residents regularly participate in democratic elections. China’s claim to this territory is still one of the biggest obstacles to negotiations with China. According to Professor Shen Dingli of Shanghai’s Fudan University, we need to settle these disagreements. He believes that taking those steps is essential for building sustainable peace between the two countries.
If China and India are not going to give up the idea of sovereignty then they will never stop battling each other, Shen stated. “If they can reach a deal on Southern Tibet [or Arunachal Pradesh], then the two countries would have eternal peace.”
As both countries navigate their complicated relationship amidst external pressures, including fluctuating global alliances, there is hope that dialogue can lead to a more stable coexistence.
“India thought it would be a very close strategic ally [of the US], but they were not getting the support they were expecting from Washington,” said Professor Christopher Clary. To counter these moves, India is strategically recalibrating its own approach. It seeks to solidify its role as a global leader while continuing to address threats closer to home.
Clary noted that new geopolitical currents might create a favorable moment for India. “Given President Trump’s statements about mediation between India and Pakistan and about the trade talks, there’s a feeling in Delhi that this is the time to reach out to countries like China,” he remarked.