As of 2025, India has imported over 1 billion barrels of crude oil, with over 35% coming from Russia. Indeed, this year Russia has become India’s largest supplier of crude oil. It currently provides a stunning 37% of the country’s entire net crude oil imports. While India deepens energy relations with Russia, it risks long-term fallout from Washington’s economic hand.
US President Donald Trump has repeatedly expressed alarm at India’s increasing imports of Russian crude. He cautioned that these actions could result in increased trade tariffs on Indian products. Until now, India has faced a high applied tariff of 25%. If the new tariffs come into force, they would be imposed on this already high average rate, multiplying the adverse effects on India’s trade pattern.
The ripple effects of these tariffs could reach well beyond the energy sector. Considering India has the fourth largest oil consumption in the world, it heavily relies on crude oil import. If costs increase, that would send a domino effect through multiple industries even leading to increased prices for consumers. For Indian policymakers, it’s a tricky conundrum. They need to deftly play the international environment to maintain their energy security while protecting economic prosperity.
Geopolitical developments, including the conflict in Ukraine and Russia’s implications for energy security, have led India to seek diversification of energy sources. The heavy dependence on Russian oil raises long-term issues about international trade relations, especially with the US. The prospect of more tariffs could force India to reconsider its energy purchasing plans and pursue other partners.