Venezuela is quickly becoming a key arena for escalating geopolitical confrontation. Just this week, foreign ministers from both Russia and China lashed out against the United States for its actions to bring down the Maduro regime. The U.S. has significantly increased its own military operations. They’re creating punitive strikes on boats suspected of drug trafficking, and recently struck a third oil tanker to undermine Nicolás Maduro’s administration.
During the crisis, President Donald Trump and other U.S. leaders have suggested that Maduro should leave office of his own accord. He fears the increased pressure on the Venezuelan strongman could have grave consequences. “It’d be genius for him to do that,” he added. Yet he seems to want a peaceful transition of power, rather than years of counterproductive confrontation.
And with the U.S. announcing and forcing a blockade on sanctioned oil tankers, sanctions have entirely derailed and devastated tanker loading at ports in Venezuela. The international shipment of oil cargoes has dropped dramatically, so the volume of oil cargoes now moves primarily from US port to US port. In contrast, the growth in loaded tankers still moored in Venezuela has exploded. Until recently, millions of barrels of Venezuelan oil were left marooned aboard these vessels.
Unfortunately, the problem is only getting worse. Customers are increasingly pushing for greater discounts and modifying contracts to account for increased risks of moving oil outside of Venezuela’s waters. This major change underscores the growing pressure and crisis that Maduro’s government is now facing. Because of ever-expanding sanctions and military threats by the U.S., securing international trade agreements is getting harder.
In fact, China has previously condemned the seizure of ships owned by another state as a serious violation of international law. This announcement follows a U.S. intercept of a China-bound oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela. This decision has had the effect of making relations between the two countries more toxic than before. In response, a spokesperson for China vehemently rejected all “unilateral and illegal” sanctions against Venezuela. This line unequivocally illustrates their backing of Maduro’s repressive regime.
Since then, Maduro has lashed out in response to Trump’s comments and anti-Venezuelan activity. He thinks the U.S. President would be better off staying out of Venezuelan affairs and keeping his eye on domestic problems. This tense interaction gives a glimpse into the tense ties between the pair of leaders. More importantly, the story sheds light on the accountability of U.S. foreign policy in Latin America.
Trump has also described the Venezuelan crisis in stark terms, characterizing it as a nexus of “drug terrorism, human trafficking, murder and kidnapping.” Consequently, his administration has doubled down on reaching for increasingly aggressive measures to destabilize Maduro’s regime and reassert control of Venezuelan oil resources. The U.S. government should hold onto or sell the oil it seized from around Venezuelan coast. This decision was sure to incense the approach of an already twisted situation.
As global powers force themselves into opposing camps over this question, the future of Venezuela is thrown into even greater doubt. U.S. sanctions are central to constructing the crisis. At the same time, Russian and Chinese backing for Maduro, on top of trends at international markets, will continue to shape its trajectory.