Geopolitically, Iran is still very much shunned by the Gulf states. This is the case even following dramatic recent interventions, including a period of diplomacy spearheaded by Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi. While Tehran supports a weakened network of regional proxies known as the axis of resistance, it faces ongoing disputes and challenges in the region, particularly concerning its relationships with neighboring countries.
Looking ahead Iran’s relationship with the six Arab Gulf states is likely to continue to be characterized by mutual suspicion. Iran’s hard line against recognizing a Palestinian two-state solution complicates its relations even more with Arab countries. Saudi Arabia’s ongoing feud with the United Arab Emirates further muddies these waters. It’s centered on three extremely tactically important islands in the Gulf.
Notwithstanding this difficult regional context, Araghchi is on an intense tour of Arab capitals. His declared intent is to deepen bilateral ties between each of the countries. Indeed, his travels have often taken him—like last year’s frequent trips to Cairo—where he aims to establish or strengthen these connections. Araghchi makes it a point to express his deep engagement with the local cultures. He’s known for being widely photographed enjoying regional cuisine during these visits.
In recent discussions, Araghchi has sought to convince Gulf states that Iran poses a lesser threat to global stability compared to Israel. He has emphasized the need for dialogue, citing the necessity for collective action against the myriad challenges facing the region.
“The big challenges in the region – and we are talking about internal and external challenges in different countries – require all of us to return to the negotiating table.” – Majed al-Ansari
The scenes of this ongoing diplomatic endeavor certainly are dominated by Iran’s increasingly aggressive military posture. Iran has made direct, open threats to strike U.S. installations across the region. This comes in response to a major drone strike that killed a U.S. contractor on a U.S. base. Tehran claims that the United States ordered Israel to end its 12-day military operation to eliminate Iranian leadership and nuclear facilities. This order purportedly arrived immediately following the strike on the U.S. base.
Movement in Iranian-Saudi relations has come a long way from where it was three years ago. Their formerly antagonistic relationship is slowly getting better, even as deep-seated tensions remain. This thawing of relations signals potential shifts in Middle Eastern geopolitics, as both nations explore avenues for cooperation amid escalating regional conflicts.
Araghchi’s recent diplomatic outreach aims to take advantage of this evolving environment by preempting concerns through direct dialogue with Arab leaders. His communications are intended to provide a defense for Tehran’s military actions, including the suppression of dissent inside of Iran.
The U.S. ensures that it stays engaged in the game of regional chess. Special envoy Steve Witkoff has understandably directed most of his efforts and attention toward Qatar. However, while Witkoff may be supporting Qatari initiatives, no relations with Iran have been directly called out in his pursuits.
“Hopefully, the United States and Iran will resolve this issue among themselves – whether through mediators, other actors, or direct dialogue. We are closely following these developments.” – Hakan Fidan
Regardless of any diplomatic overtures from diplomats like Araghchi, the shadow of military confrontation hangs thickly over the entirety of the Gulf region. Some analysts remain cautious, warning that Iran still retains the capacity to threaten maritime traffic in the Gulf. This scenario demonstrates exactly how precarious the status quo is.