Iran hanging by a thread of re-imposition of United Nations sanctions. Tensions are running high over Iran’s nuclear program and its hostility towards Israel. The expected sanctions are designed to make Iran’s nuclear program illegal. They have generated considerable and passionate discussion inside the country about what this could mean.
Historically, Iran has faced international isolation, notably during the Iran-Iraq War when it contended with U.S. Awacs, French Mirage jets, and T-72 tanks supplied by Russia. To increase the pressure, the Iranian leadership is providentially at its weakest point due to sanctions. Imposing blanket sectoral sanctions against a country with a population over 90 million that don’t explicitly exempt the country’s oil, gas industries and financial institutions.
As negotiations continue, Iranian diplomats understand that these sanctions may spell disastrous effects for the country as a whole. An estimated one out of every three citizens is said to be militarized and prepared for battle, an indication of an increasing rise in external tensions and nationalistic fervor.
The Iranian economy, already under duress from U.S. sanctions, is forecasted to continue contracting. Experts warn that the national currency is expected to depreciate significantly and that infrastructure failures could arise from the imposed restrictions. Furthermore, all analysts expect that poverty rates are going to escalate across Iranian provinces and cities, which would cause social crises in several regions.
Iran’s parliament is taking things a step further on the homefront, considering draconian measures in retaliation to the sanctions. Gym and other radical lawmakers plan to introduce legislation calling for the U.S. to leave the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). This decision would ultimately rest with Iran’s Supreme Leader, igniting a fierce internal political battle over the nation’s future direction.
European powers have sent an unequivocal signal. They will snapback sanctions if the UN nuclear inspectorate is denied access to any of Iran’s nuclear facilities. In return, Iran’s foreign ministry has rebutted that European countries have no legal basis for such measures.
“The reality is that many countries have nuclear power and are not subject to these rules but Iran is singled out for controls because we oppose Israel. We are dealt with in a different way because of our foreign policy.” – Mousavi
Even in the face of the threat of sanctions enforcement, Iranian officials are unrepentant and defiant on their plans. Rajabi Seddequi expressed confidence in Iran’s ability to endure economic hardships, stating, “For 40 years we have become familiar with sanctions. They did not break us. They made us more resilient.”
In addition, Ibrahim Heshmati cautioned the West from underestimating Iran’s military strength. He declared, “If there is a second war, this time it will be all the way to Israel. We stopped too early last time and we have the missiles to do this.”
Yet, the defiance of a few radicals is not in sync with all voices from within Iran. Nobel Laureate and prominent human rights lawyer Shirin Ebadi was among those who warned that the looming economic devastation had the potential. She foresaw an “economic avalanche” coming because of these UN sanctions. She fears this would lead to much deeper poverty for most.
“But an economic avalanche is looming with these UN sanctions – they are very different from what has happened before – and that means even more economic adversity will only impoverish us more.” – Shirin Ebadi
As Iran steers through these stormy seas, it is still stuck between protecting its sovereignty and ongoing international condemnation. The looming threat of re-imposed sanctions has stoked anxiety over potential domestic turmoil and increased economic deterioration.