Iran’s advancing nuclear program has recently been the subject of sharp criticism. New evidence suggests that the country is further along in acquiring nuclear weapons than we had initially thought. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is sounding alarm bells about Iran’s lack of transparency. The agency is particularly concerned about Iran’s engagement with inspections as the country has a history of concealed nuclear operations.
At the center of the controversy is Iran’s civil nuclear program, which remains largely opaque to the IAEA. The agency has expressed its concern on several occasions about Iran’s failure to cooperate. They are especially concerned about Iran’s former clandestine civil-military nuclear program, referred to as “Amad,” believed to have ended in 2003. Although this program has come to an end, recent events show that Iran has advanced significantly in its nuclear efforts.
A recently declassified 22-page report from the IAEA details Iran’s failure to comply with its nuclear commitments. Perhaps most strikingly, the report draws attention to Iranian progress in increasing its stockpile of 60%-enriched uranium. First, it has increased from 274.8 kg in early February to 408.6 kg, a 50% increase! This much enriched uranium would be enough for up to nine nuclear weapons, depending on their design parameters.
Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium exceeds the threshold set by the 2015 nuclear deal. Leading former Iranian officials have openly claimed that Iran has acquired everything it needs to produce nuclear weapons. Furthermore, the IAEA has been examining human-made uranium particles at three undeclared sites in Iran: Varamin, Marivan, and Turquz Abad.
Iranian authorities have denied IAEA access to data it had from its centrifuge production plants, starting from February 2021. This denial seriously restricts the agency’s ability to verify the country’s nuclear activities with strong assurance. Rafael Grossi, the head of the IAEA, emphasized the urgency of the situation, stating that “dates are always arbitrary. They are not far. It would be, you know, a matter of months, not years” for Iran to potentially weaponize its missile warheads.
Iran’s unwillingness to cooperate has sounded alarm bells, too. Grossi pointed out that “Unfortunately, Iran has repeatedly either not answered or not provided technically credible answers to the agency’s questions.” He noted that “it has sought to sanitize the locations, which has impeded agency verification activities.” This obfuscation undermines any assurances from Iran’s leaders and creates a lack of confidence in Iran’s assertion that it will not pursue a nuclear weapon.
The IAEA report further underscores these concerns by stating that “these three locations, and other possible related locations, were part of an undeclared structured nuclear program carried out by Iran until the early 2000s and that some activities used undeclared nuclear material.”
Unfortunately, these scary trends didn’t prevent U.S. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard from providing rosy worst-case predictions in mid March. When pressed on it, she claimed that Iran isn’t currently seeking a nuclear weapon. However, she acknowledged that “Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile is at its highest levels and is unprecedented for a state without nuclear weapons.”
Gabbard mentioned a growing discourse within Iran regarding nuclear weapons, describing it as “an erosion of a decades-long taboo in Iran on discussing nuclear weapons in public, likely emboldening nuclear weapons advocates within Iran’s decision-making apparatus.”
As tensions escalate over Iran’s nuclear development, regional and global powers alike are arming themselves and fighting the battle in a costly proxy war. A potential Iranian nuclear weapon would further destabilize an already volatile region. This attack might lead to a rethinking of international non-proliferation policies.