Israel has taken a huge step towards the escalation of hostilities by recently conducting a wave of airstrikes against Iranian military targets. So far, within the first 24 hours, these strikes have been a painful loss for Tehran. Israeli forces have been able to kill 21 of Iran’s 22 top military leaders. They have retaken 10 of the 12 leading nuclear scientists, largely dismantling Tehran’s military command and nuclear infrastructure. This unprecedented offensive has given Iran no time to recover or mount an effective military response.
The airstrikes would hit dozens of artillery launch sites throughout western Iran, including toward underground bases based in deep Kermanshah. These operations testify to Israel’s new tactical imperative to destroy Iran’s military leadership and nuclear aspirations. Even after the massive destruction wrought by Israeli forces, Iran still has the ability to respond, though certainly on a lesser level.
Iran’s missile barrage capacity has suffered a severe blow. Over the course of the weekend, they’ve fired up to 40 missiles, but now that range has diminished to a ceiling of 15 to 20 at most. Approximately 10% of Iran’s ballistic missiles have managed to evade Israel’s sophisticated air defenses, but the overall effectiveness of their strike capability has diminished. At least one unprecedented missile attack managed to penetrate far enough into Israeli territory to target the Soroka Medical Center in Beersheba, severely injuring 76 people.
While Iran’s missile capabilities remain formidable, estimated at about 2,000 high-speed ballistic missiles, the recent attacks have largely failed to target Israel’s military-industrial complex effectively. As a result of an attack on a refinery in Haifa, the shutdown of the refinery’s facilities became necessary. This incident raised the profile of the risk of disruption, but it ultimately did little to tip the balance of power.
Israel continues to enjoy uncontested air superiority. This dominance allows the country to carry out strikes at a lower pace, even as Russia’s stockpiles of strike missiles continue to deplete. Israeli forces claim that they have already blown up 120 Iranian air defense systems. They had done so through an effective mix of air strikes and drone strikes, deepening their operational edge.
Given these changes, analysts are watching closely to see what happens next. Fabian Hinz, an expert on military strategy, commented on Israel’s current posture:
“Israeli leadership, at least for the time being, [is] accepting the risks of ballistic missile strikes on its population centres.” – Fabian Hinz
This tolerance highlights the fraught state for both countries as they operate in an intensifying conflict landscape.
Iran’s reproduction capability, at least 50 new weapons per month, U.S. intelligence assessments suggest. This constrained production could greatly improve its military capabilities in the future. Right now, it is indeed wrestling with short-term losses from Israel’s continued bombardment.
Israel has admitted to losing just one drone in its long-running low-scale campaign against Iran. Its unprecedented effectiveness at neutralizing high-ranking military officials and critical infrastructure provide it with an overwhelming strategic advantage in this conflict. Israel’s Arrow 3 air defense system The Arrow 3 has a stated range of 1,500 miles. It provides critical early warning and defense to Israel, intercepting incoming missiles before they get anywhere near populated areas.