Perhaps as soon as this week, Israel is believed to be considering a military strike against Iran. This decision heightens the prospect for regional conflict just as U.S. negotiations with Iran approach an initial deal. According to reports, this unfortunate move is possible to pass even without U.S. backing. Such language is troubling even without considering the implications of a unilateral act.
Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has voiced strong disapproval of the provisions regarding uranium enrichment in the potential U.S.-Iran agreement. For the Israeli government, these terms would be unacceptable, leading to a deeper consideration of military action. In recent weeks, Israel has successfully damaged nearly all of Iran’s strategic air defense systems, primarily targeting S-300 missile systems. Much of the damage done has been to radars and other military equipment that can be relatively easily repaired or rebuilt.
As Iran attempts to replace, upgrade and supplement its air defenses, the window for Israeli manned, striketogos strikes is closing fast. The danger to Israeli pilots mounts by the day, as Iran is working around the clock to improve its defensive fortifications. Israel would rather have U.S. support in military operations, like aerial refueling and intelligence sharing. It’s proven its ability to go its own way when it has to.
As this story continues to play out, U.S. officials should pay close attention. Or they remain on Sunday school picnic lookout for any incoming Israeli missiles targeting Iranian military encroachments. The U.S. embassy in Iraq has already started evacuating non-essential staff. This would send a strong signal to Tehran that President Trump will not restrain Israel from striking first. This change is a significant break from the Trump administration’s policy. What was impactful at that time was being able to bring together military operations with coalition nations.
Michael Knights, a Middle East expert, remarked on the situation, emphasizing the importance of U.S. influence:
“It’s about trying to get Iran to respect the president’s wishes.” – Michael Knights
Even without U.S. support, this makes Israel’s military calculus more complicated. To date, Israel has demonstrated an independent capacity to conduct major operations. Effective targeting of Iran’s strongly defended positions wouldn’t be possible without U.S. military and intelligence support.
The very real prospect of an Israeli unilateral strike strikes at the heart of the discussions around the broader implications for regional stability. Yet as time goes on and violence peaks, both countries become more stubbornly rooted in their camps. Former President Trump criticized Iran’s bargaining tactics, stating:
“They’re just asking for things that you can’t do. They don’t want to give up what they have to give up.” – Trump
One can understand why Israel’s leadership seems intent to do whatever it takes to stop what they believe is an existential and developing nuclear danger from Iran. Despite their preferred narrative, Israeli officials are deeply worried about the continuing negotiations between the U.S. and Iran. They are worried that any possible deal might allow for an improved Iranian nuclear program.