Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JPMorgan Chase, made headlines with his highly unusual tirade against inflation in his recent annual shareholder letter. He underscored concerns about global economic growth at Morgan Stanley US Financial Conference in New York. Noting that consumer sentiment and the stock market have recovered from the doom-and-gloom forecasts made during the debt ceiling fight earlier this spring, more dangerous problems are looming, largely due to deeper, now former president Donald Trump’s Tariff and immigration policies.
Dimon pointed out that as of now, the tariffs have not produced visible effects on the economy, stating, “You haven’t seen an effect yet other than in the sentiment.” He warned that the key economic measures that really make a difference are the ones you can’t lump together — job growth and inflation. He thinks these difficult numbers are soon going to look much more like the fundamental problems our economy is facing. “You’re going to see real numbers, and I think there’s a chance real numbers will deteriorate soon,” Dimon warned.
We were pleased to see the CEO’s apprehensions about creating inflationary pressures. He argues that these pressures might be the consequence of the slowing immigration to the US. Of course, he pointed out, lower immigration would drive down economic growth, making the terrain for businesses even rockier. Additionally, Dimon emphasized that it would likely take several months before the full impact of Trump’s tariffs on business decisions, hiring, and inflation become evident.
“The buts are real, and I am not trying to be negative,” he stated, acknowledging the complex interplay of factors at play. Looking forward, he noted that consumer sentiment is at an all-time high. Such optimism isn’t enough to signal the important, necessary turning points for the economy. There is just a huge amount of moving parts,” Dimon continued, in explanation of the very different things going on to the economy.
For the record, here’s what Dimon had to say about tariffs during the call. In particular, he notes late July, August, September or October as crucial times for these developments. He remarked on Wall Street’s eagerness for signs indicating that the economy might navigate through the turmoil caused by tariffs.
“Employment will come down a little bit. Inflation will go up a little bit,” Dimon predicted, hoping that these changes would remain minimal. He argued that we should pay attention to large changes in the direction of economic activity. Of particular interest to him are those dealing with military and international economic coalitions, for he considers these necessary to United States’ prosperity in the future.