The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is set to release its nonfarm payrolls report for January, showcasing a projected employment growth of 169,000 jobs, a slight decrease from the 256,000 recorded in December. This figure aligns closely with the three-month average for job creation, reflecting a steady employment landscape. The report, scheduled for release on Friday, will also provide insights into average hourly earnings and the unemployment rate, which is expected to remain steady at 4.1%.
The BLS employs two primary surveys to compile these statistics: the establishment survey, which calculates the nonfarm payrolls number, and the household count, which determines the unemployment rate. These metrics suggest a robust employment scenario that remains largely unaffected by external economic factors.
Eric Winograd, director of developed market economic research at AllianceBernstein, emphasized the significance of the labor market to economic policy.
"The labor market is a lot more important to the Fed than what's going on with tariffs," – Eric Winograd, director of developed market economic research at AllianceBernstein.
The broader view of the employment picture remains solid, with the Federal Reserve unlikely to express immediate concern over these figures. The anticipated stability in job growth and unemployment rates indicates that the Federal Reserve may maintain its current stance, potentially holding off any policy changes until summer. This pause allows officials to observe the implications of President Donald Trump's fiscal agenda.
The report will also address initial revisions released in August 2024, which indicated that 818,000 fewer jobs were created between April 2023 and March 2024 than previously reported. Adjustments for immigration and population are expected to bring this total down further. The BLS will also release data projecting an annual benchmark revision showing a record increase of 3.5 million in population and 2.3 million in household employment.
Despite these revisions and adjustments, the labor market appears to have started 2025 on a strong footing, albeit with a slight decline from the end of the previous year. The payroll figures for January are expected to reflect status quo conditions, with a modest wage increase of 0.3% for the month and a 3.7% rise over the past year.
Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, expressed confidence in the labor market's resilience amid varying economic pressures.
"With inflation at least for now at tolerable levels and firms very comfortable making sustained investment, there's no reason why we shouldn't continue to see job growth around 150,000 per month, which is the upper end of what's needed to keep the labor market stable," – Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM.
Brusuelas further highlighted that economic activities are likely to persist unaffected by external challenges.
"The economy is still going to roll on, people are going to make investment decisions, they're going to get up each morning and go to work," – Brusuelas