Lebanon's parliament has elected Joseph Aoun as the country's new president, concluding a lengthy two-year vacancy in the presidency. On the 13th attempt by a deeply divided parliament, Aoun secured 99 out of 128 votes, signaling a significant political shift for the nation. Aoun's election is supported by international powers such as Saudi Arabia, France, and the United States, marking a potential turning point for Lebanon's international relations. His presidency is seen as the first step in lifting Lebanon out of its current international isolation.
The election of Joseph Aoun represents not only political change but also a strategic move to reassert the role of the Lebanese army, particularly in south Lebanon. Historically perceived as a weak force, the Lebanese army may now gain strength under Aoun's leadership. He has pledged to "confirm the state's right to monopolise the carrying of weapons" and emphasized the army's authority over the country's borders. This assertion comes at a time when Lebanon's political system remains deeply rooted in a confessional structure, distributing political appointments across its 18 sects.
Joseph Aoun, being a Maronite Christian, fulfills the constitutional requirement for Lebanon's presidency, while the prime minister and the speaker of parliament are designated as Sunni Muslim and Shia Muslim, respectively. Despite Aoun's election, the power of the executive branch in Lebanon remains limited. The nation continues to grapple with an economic crisis that began in 2019, which exposed deep-seated corruption within its political class. The financial meltdown resulted in the collapse of the banking sector and led to millions losing their savings.
Hezbollah, which has dominated Lebanese politics for over two decades by placing its members in cabinet positions and controlling key ministries, faces new challenges. The loss of Syria's former president Bashar al-Assad, who facilitated Iranian weapons transfers to Lebanon, compounded these difficulties. Additionally, Hezbollah has been severely impacted by 14 months of fighting with Israel, resulting in the deaths of its secretary general and senior leadership.
“Hezbollah today is not what it used to be two years ago … I think that the army will be able to confront Hezbollah, but neither side is interested in confrontation.” – Hilal Khashan
The election of Joseph Aoun is perceived as a gateway to addressing Lebanon's myriad economic and political crises since 2019. Nonetheless, forming a government remains a formidable task. The current cabinet, led by caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati, was only established after 13 months of negotiations.
“The first priority is the ceasefire and the second is dealing with Hezbollah’s weapons.” – Michel Helou
Aoun's presidency brings hope for reconciliation with the international community and Gulf countries. His election reflects widespread international support and is expected to translate into tangible benefits for Lebanon.
“This is a sort of reconciliation with the international community and the Gulf countries. This is the real added value of the election of Joseph Aoun – that he brings a translation of this international support.” – Alain Aoun