Kalshi has made a name for themselves in offering contracts on political election results. It’s the latest in a long string of milestones the company has been cranking out lately. Last week, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) took a monumental step. In response, CFTC dropped its appeal of a lower court ruling that was in Kalshi’s favor. The decision found that Congress had not empowered the CFTC to prevent Kalshi from offering contracts on election results. With this decision, Kalshi will be able to relaunch its betting markets on a range of political outcomes. That even includes the most anticipated 2028 presidential election.
Kalshi’s CEO, Tarek Mansour, expressed his satisfaction regarding the CFTC’s decision. He stated, “Today is historic. We have always believed that doing things the right way, no matter how hard, no matter how painful, pays off.” Mansour thinks this outcome highlights the validity of Kalshi’s vision for prediction markets in America.
The recent legal battle started when the CFTC prevented Kalshi from providing contracts on elections. A court subsequently ruled that this action was not authorized by Congress. As a result, Kalshi is once again able to accept bets on political outcomes. Following the ruling, an appeals court quickly granted a stay on the National Futures Association’s freeze on Kalshi’s activities. This decision put the firm above any and all rules.
In its current lineup, Kalshi offers contracts on various pivotal political happenings. For starters, you can already wager on who will be the Republican and Democratic presidential nominees in 2028. Plus, you could wager on which party will take home the Senate seat in Georgia, and who will be the GOP contender in Ohio’s gubernatorial primary.
Kalshi might be basking in victory, but the CFTC’s decision to abandon its appeal has been met with fierce condemnation from advocates. Better Markets, a financial reform organization, slammed the move as “a stark betrayal of the public interest.” When this idea was first proposed, Stephen Hall, the legal director of Better Markets, cried alarm. He further stressed the impact on election integrity and potential market manipulation with this decision. He stated, “That decision was bad law and even worse policy, as it threatens the integrity of our federal elections.”
The concern was that if this ruling is allowed to stand, it would set a dangerous legal precedent. “Moreover, with this dismissal, the lower court decision will remain intact, setting a terrible and enduring legal precedent,” he noted.
Additionally, CNBC’s Jesse Pound echoed similar sentiments about the potential negative consequences of the CFTC’s about-face, emphasizing that it raises concerns for all Americans regarding electoral integrity and market manipulation.
Despite these substantial criticisms, Kalshi has certainly doubled-down on its stated objectives of providing new, industry-leading financial instruments based on predicted political happenings. The firm named Donald Trump Jr. as a strategic advisor earlier this year, signaling its intent to strengthen its position in the market further.