Britain’s newly installed Prime Minister Keir Starmer finds himself at an important inflection point in UK-EU relations. He’s welcoming European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and other top officials to London. Starmer’s trip follows him attending the European Political Community summit in Tirana on May 16, 2025. Its aim is to renegotiate the post-Brexit settlement between the UK and the European Union.
As leader of the opposition, Starmer faces daunting headwinds. With a closer eye on domestic political pressures, he too has an incentive to strengthen ties with the EU. His government’s negotiations with European leaders come at a time when Starmer’s popularity has plummeted to record lows, with only 23% of Brits expressing favorable views of him in recent polls. This convoluted backdrop further complicates his ability to pursue any measures that would be perceived as overly conciliatory or friendly towards the EU.
Starmer has a long and arduous road ahead, but he is unapologetically resolute. He could insist that any deal he agrees with the EU involves no return to the customs union, single market or freedom of movement. He’s very conscious of not coming across as too pro-European. His caution is partly motivated by fear of a growing Reform UK, the party founded and still headed by Brexit architect Nigel Farage that calls for a hardline approach to relations with the EU.
The build-up to the summit has been fraught, with talks between UK and EU negotiating teams going into the early hours of the morning. According to the WaPo, for example, that possible agreement was “on the table.” Starmer’s lingering terror of the political consequences of Reform UK would likely prevent him from taking a decisive step.
Mujtaba Rahman, managing director – Europe at Eurasia Group, offered his perspective on these negotiations. In particular, he focused on the potential for a successful deal to boost the UK’s influence within EU security and defense policy. The anticipated summit declaration may consist of three components: a symbolic gesture, some underwhelming substance, and a pathway for more substantial cooperation in the future.
“This will be a revealing test of the political calibre of the Labour government close to one year after its huge election win.” – Teneo
Starmer’s administration has proposed initiatives such as a youth mobility scheme that would allow young people from both the UK and EU to work, study, volunteer, or travel for a limited period. This plan marks an important breakthrough in creating closer relationships between the two regions while upholding important Brexit tenets.
Debate is still going on about using e-gates for UK passport holders at airports in Europe. This major initiative has the potential to simplify travel experiences and improve collaboration among all levels of government, private sector, and academia.
“He will not want to appear too pro-European and go back to rejoining the EU; that is absolutely not on the table here. He has to balance domestic politics and to strike the balance between getting closer and seeing where cooperation can be improved, but also reaffirming some things that the UK had clearly wanted to achieve through Brexit.” – Gesine Weber
As Starmer steers this difficult diplomatic situation, his administration will need to be mindful of public opinion and political consequences. Gesine Weber, a fellow at the German Marshall Fund, said it is true that Starmer’s position is rather fragile.
“Keir Starmer is really in a difficult position here.” – Gesine Weber
The Prime Minister’s strategic moves in this summit might echo beyond short-term political repercussions. The prospect for greater collaboration on trade issues—especially agrifoods—and energy policy has the potential to affect bilateral relations well into the future.
This delicate dance between rebuilding relationships with the EU and maintaining domestic support reflects broader concerns about Brexit’s long-term implications on British politics. While these conversations continue, only time will tell how well Starmer is able to swim through these stormy seas.