The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will likely have to shut down entirely if there is a government shutdown. This would literally stop the publication of all of our most important economic data. The BLS is about to release its monthly nonfarm payrolls report on Friday, a leading indicator of the pace of job creation. Now the agency has just released a nearly 73-page contingency plan. It is explicit that should a shutdown happen, they will withhold the release of this report and all other important releases.
On October 15, the BLS will release the consumer price index (CPI). This vital gauge will give us a better picture of the evolution of inflation. This report couldn’t be more timely. It provides one final piece of inflation data right before the Federal Reserve’s October 28-29 meeting. The Fed puts profound weight on these tightly controlled economic indicators to determine intelligent paths forward with monetary policy.
Signs of weakening job growth are becoming hard to ignore. This sets the stage for next week’s nonfarm payrolls report to be a bellwether for these economic analysts and policymakers. The temporary shutdown of operations would be a serious setback to judging the ongoing state of the labor market at this transformational time.
As stated in the contingency plan, “BLS will cease all activities.” According to this suspension, “Economic data that would have been released during the lapse will not be released.” Additionally, the plan states that “The BLS website will not be updated with new content or restored in the event of a technical failure during a lapse.”
Every Thursday, the BLS usually drops the initial jobless claims data—a classic early employment indicator—like clockwork. When the government shuts down, those reports could be similarly delayed or scrapped altogether.
The contingency plan released Friday demonstrates the BLS’s ingrained readiness to respond to unexpected disruptions. The agency’s response has been to entirely halt enforcement action. This move is in line with federal legal practices during government shutdowns, which trigger significant and sometimes complete data reporting shutdowns as well.