As the clock ticks down to 00:01 EDT on Wednesday, the United States government braces for its first shutdown in nearly seven years if lawmakers fail to reach an agreement. This looming shutdown, reminiscent of past crises, raises concerns about the potential impacts on the economy and public services. The last shutdown, from December 2018 to January 2019, set the record at 36 days. For many in the industry, those years were marked by great uncertainty in governmental operations.
In the past nine months, the Trump administration has proposed dangerous cuts. To pay for these cuts, they’ve eliminated over 400 employees. As negotiations continue and tensions in Congress boil over, we have three key pieces of advice. Lawmakers are doing their utmost to prevent another shutdown, a move that would shutter crucial DOT services and harm the economy. Many are drawing parallels to previous shutdowns, particularly the notable instances in December 2018, when disagreements over funding for a wall along the Mexico border led to an extended closure of federal operations.
Traditionally, US federal government shutdowns are rare events, and when they do happen, they’re typically the byproduct of budgetary standoffs. In many ways, the US government is an extraordinarily unusual beast. Its equal and oftentimes at odds branches can make it a minefield for negotiations and a starting point for stalemates. Though most shutdowns last only a handful of days, history has seen some painfully protracted exceptions. The December 1995 shutdown, which lasted for 21 days, was a turning point. In comparison, the September 2013 shutdown lasted a painful 16 days.
In December 2018, the government closed for a record-setting 35 days—all but ensuring that it would be the longest shutdown in history. Not long after, a second shutdown surpassed that record and lasted for 36 days. Every one of these examples demonstrates the heartbreaking reality that legislators must confront when seeking agreement on budgetary matters. During Ronald Reagan’s presidency in the 1980s, he successfully juggled eight short government shutdowns. These shutdowns were extremely brief compared to the past few crises we’ve witnessed.
If negotiations break down this week, the repercussions won’t just reverberate within the Beltway, but across all affected industries, which include much of the economy. Analysts warn that a prolonged shutdown could lead to delays in government services, affecting everything from travel to public safety. For the tens of thousands of affected federal workers, even the threat of furloughs or arrears in their paychecks would add painful stress to struggling household budgets nationwide.
A shutdown goes beyond just impacting day-to-day government operations. It can do much more than that. It can trigger broader economic consequences. Consumer confidence may fade if citizens sense insecurity at the heart of our federal government, which would dampen spending and investment. Travel disruptions remain the top worry. Federal agencies such as the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) will run into staffing shortages, contributing to longer wait times at airports.