The United States faces the imminent threat of a federal government shutdown unless Congress can approve a funding bill within the next month. Despite controlling the White House and both chambers of Congress, Republicans will require assistance from Democrats to pass the necessary legislation. Democrats themselves are divided over whether to allow a shutdown, seeing it as a potential demonstration of their discontent with the current administration's policies. The political fallout from past shutdowns has often been severe, and President Trump's inclination to assert his executive power could further complicate the situation.
Federal employees by the hundreds of thousands may face unpaid furloughs if lawmakers fail to reach an agreement. The last government shutdown, which occurred during Trump's first term, lasted 35 days, marking it as the longest shutdown in U.S. history. This precarious situation presents Trump with an opportunity to marginalize federal agencies and departments he considers unnecessary.
In the Senate, at least 60 votes are needed to overcome a filibuster, complicating efforts to pass a funding bill. Meanwhile, House Republicans hold only a slim majority, and demands from hard-right members for deeper spending cuts may force the Speaker of the House to seek Democratic support. Some Democrats have committed to withholding their backing for a funding agreement until what they term a "constitutional crisis" is resolved.
"The answer is usually nothing," – Gordon Gray, executive director of Pinpoint Policy Institute and a former Republican staffer for the Senate budget committee.
This sentiment reflects the political deadlock that often accompanies government shutdowns. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, for instance, remains a target of Trump's efforts to freeze federal funding.
"For people who have to interact with the government during a shutdown [and] for the workforce, there’s real downsides. Politically, there just seems to be more downside than upside." – Gordon Gray
Gordon Gray highlights the tangible impact a shutdown can have on both government operations and federal employees. Past experiences have shown that the public tends to blame the president more than Congress in such situations; during the 2018 shutdown, 50% of Americans held Trump responsible.
Democrats do possess some leverage in these negotiations, although they may need to compromise to avoid a complete shutdown. Ezra Levin, co-founder and co-executive director of the progressive group Indivisible, emphasizes the need for strategic action:
"We’re not just looking for statements. We’re not looking for protest votes. We’re also asking them to identify where they have power, where they have leverage and use that power," – Ezra Levin
"And because of the nature of this funding fight, this is a clear opportunity." – Ezra Levin
The current political climate demands careful negotiation from both parties. Democratic senator Andy Kim voiced his concerns:
"I cannot support efforts that will continue this lawlessness that we’re seeing when it comes to this administration’s actions," – Andy Kim
"And for us to be able to support government funding in that way, only for them to turn it around, to dismantle the government – that is not something that should be allowed." – Andy Kim
Ezra Levin further pointed out the difficulty of passing any reasonable funding bill through the Senate without causing discontent within the Republican party:
"There’s no reasonable funding bill that could make its way through the Senate that wouldn’t cause uproar in the Republican party on the House side," – Ezra Levin
Hakeem Jeffries, House Democratic leader, accused Republicans of driving towards a government shutdown:
"At this moment, there is no discussion because the speaker of the House has apparently ordered House Republican appropriators to walk away from the negotiating table," – Hakeem Jeffries
"They are marching America toward a reckless Republican shutdown." – Hakeem Jeffries
Cory Booker, another Democrat from New Jersey, criticized Republicans for their role in previous shutdowns:
"The Republican party has shown year after year that they’re the party of shutdowns. They’re the party of government chaos," – Cory Booker
"So we’re not looking to shut down the government. We’re looking actually to protect people." – Cory Booker
A potential shutdown provides President Trump with an opportunity to exercise his authority over federal agencies. The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) possesses discretion in interpreting a shutdown and could use it to advance Trump's agenda.