Today, Mali is in the midst of an extensive multi-layered crisis. Jihadist groups’ influence, particularly Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM), is increasing, exacerbating the country’s political unrest and its worsening humanitarian situation. The country’s security situation remains unpredictable, prompting the U.S. State Department to issue an advisory urging American citizens to “depart immediately using commercial aviation.” The urgent advisory underscores deepening risks to U.S. and international infrastructure and personnel in Mali. Since 2012, the violence at state and local levels has dramatically increased, causing more than 17,700 fatalities.
Mali’s alliance with Wagner mercenaries and pro-junta militias has drawn severe criticism from human rights organizations, which allege widespread abuses. The situation has continued to deteriorate, creating deep concern among onlookers. Otherwise, we will all be witnesses to a possible third coup in as little as five years.
Deteriorating Security Situation
A once stable security environment in Mali has rapidly deteriorated. JNIM, while deeply burrowing into Mali, has spread its tentacles across the region, including into neighboring countries such as Benin and Nigeria. News reports have suggested that the group’s finances have been further enhanced by high-profile ransom payments for abducted foreigners—including Emiratis.
In short, claims the U.S. State Department, Mali’s security situation has become increasingly volatile. The advisory issued to U.S. citizens underscores the urgency of the situation: “Depart immediately using commercial aviation.” Foreign diplomatic missions have begun withdrawing staff from the country. This warning comes off the back of their deteriorating relations with Western countries.
A former Malian minister expressed deep concern over the state of the nation:
“I don’t want to sound too dramatic, but the country is collapsing before our eyes.”
This sentiment resonates with many who fear that the ongoing conflict and political upheaval are pushing Mali toward irreversible decline.
Economic Challenges and Humanitarian Crisis
Mali is one of the most import-dependent countries in the world. With recent JNIM blockades causing huge losses on fuel trucks from neighboring Ivory Coast, Mauritania, and Senegal, it is a shifty situation. The country now is teetering on the brink of an unprecedented fuel shortage. Insiders are expecting it to only get worse over the next few weeks. One insider noted:
“I think next week will be really bad, because then the existing stocks everybody’s living off will be gone.”
Aside from the enormous humanitarian impact of this fuel shortage, its geopolitical ramifications are huge. When we can’t move people, goods, and services without large compliance costs and burdensome mandates, that creates a challenging scenario. This would further exacerbate an already grim picture for civilians.
And with schools officially closed until at least November 9, the storm of crisis engulfing the world’s education landscape has taken root in Mali. Its closure raises troubling issues regarding public safety and permanence. It’s no wonder families feel unsure about sending their kids to school amid this chaos.
Political Turmoil and Future Uncertainty
Mali’s political situation remains dangerously polarized, putting the country at the risk of yet another coup. Young captain Assimi Goïta led a second military coup only two months after coming to power in 2020. It appears he will still play a dramatic role in this continuing drama. His government expanded military rule by replacing parliament with a National Transitional Council (NTC).
The more military leaders consolidate power internally, the more it begs the question of how and when Mali will become a stable government again. Some analysts suggest that the fear of an Islamist regime may deter protests against the current government, as citizens grapple with the potential consequences of regime change. Ulf Laessing remarked:
“Before 31 December, a coup will happen in the [Sahel].”
As Mali feels its way through this new maze of insurgency, political chaos, and economic collapse, the world remains deeply engaged on the sidelines. The repercussions of these advances reach well beyond Mali’s borders, changing the security calculus throughout West Africa.
“So far nobody is demonstrating against the government because I think they know if they brought down this government, then the next one would be an Islamist one so it can also kind of strengthen the regime’s resolve a bit.”
As Mali navigates this complex web of insurgency, political upheaval, and economic hardship, the international community watches closely. The implications of these developments extend beyond Mali’s borders, influencing security dynamics across West Africa.