Canada’s new Prime Minister Mark Carney is taking a very important trip to China. Like his predecessors, he intends to solidify relations with Beijing and find new avenues of economic connection. This trip would be the first visit by a Canadian prime minister since 2017. This comes on the heels of a few years of tense relations that bottomed out in 2018. After US authorities arrested Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou in a Vancouver airport, the relationship between China and Canada soured almost instantly. Their diplomatic relations then hit an all-time low.
As Carney dives into this important mission, he’s entering a complicated reality. Canada and China have historically found it difficult to make substantive, emotional, social, or cultural connections, even with their economic interdependence. The two countries are already turbocharging their bilateral trade relationships, which reached $118 billion in 2024. Yet today, lasting tensions and divergent viewpoints are a major roadblock to movement.
Through his listening sessions, Carney will want to hear more about how to deepen cooperation in essential fields like energy and climate. His intent is to address common issues first. At the same time, he wants to create some “guardrails” for more controversial subjects such as defense and critical minerals. In a statement from Beijing’s foreign ministry, officials highlighted the necessity for both nations to “increase people-to-people ties and cultural exchanges” as a foundation for improved relations.
Carney’s intention is to create a conversation around more expansive economic collaboration. He is focused on removing trade barriers that have hurt Canadian agriculture producers. In particular, he wants to address the Chinese tariffs on Canadian canola. These tariffs have had a huge negative economic effect on agricultural producers located in Canada’s prairie provinces. These tariffs were interpreted as retaliation against Canada for having placed levies on Chinese EVs. Canada first announced those convexities in early 2024.
As Canada travels through this complex diplomatic terrain, it is well aware of China’s increasingly aggressive international presence. As Colin Robertson of the Canadian Diplomats Association says, this reflects Canada’s understanding of its place in this fraught relationship. He does agree, though, that U.S. interests must be protected, too.
“At the end of the day, there’s Canadian interests that we’re pursuing.” – Colin Robertson
Robertson further pointed out that Canada is moving towards a more realistic view in their general China policy.
“I think we are approaching the relationship now with the realism that we haven’t seen for decades.” – Colin Robertson
Herein lies the opportunity and urgency for cultivating a more positive bilateral relationship, as each country’s actions set the terms of engagement and expectations moving forward.
“A healthier relationship if both sides understand where they’re coming from and what the red lines are.” – Colin Robertson
The challenges go deeper than economic arguments. Canada perceives China as “an increasingly disruptive global power that increasingly disregards international rules and norms.” This characterization only further highlights the tightrope Canada needs to walk in its diplomacy with Beijing.
Further complicating the dynamics, Chinese state media has recently taken Canada to task for acting in a way that supports US interests. A recent op-ed in China’s Global Times warned that there might be consequences for Canada’s history.
“Perhaps this was the heavy price (Canada) paid for blindly following the US.” – Global Times
These remarks reflect concerns within China regarding foreign influence and underscore the importance of an independent Canadian stance in future negotiations.
So, while Carney meets with the intention of mending relationship, he’s cognizant of the larger geopolitical reality surrounding it. The United States should be particularly laser focused on the Canada-China relationship, not just because they have their own strategic interests in the region.
Former diplomat Colin Robertson really drove home this crucial point. He made the case that Canada needs to build closer trade relations with China to help counterbalance its economic dependence on the US.