The Rockefeller Morning Briefing is a rich, ten-page report. It features impactful economic news and market projections as the United States heads into a lengthy Labor Day weekend.
There will be no report published on Thursday, July 3 and Friday, July 4 due to the holiday. This break is sure to contribute to thin trading conditions in U.S. markets on Thursday and a full closure on Friday.
In the report, Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio emphasizes the vulnerabilities of nations, pointing out that many countries, including Spain, fail in predictable ways. He noted that the U.S. equity markets are in denial on the prospects of challenging times to come. This oversight may have serious consequences for investors. This last oversight is particularly alarming given that U.S. data tend to outshine economic indicators from other countries.
Also released on Thursday are nonfarm payroll data, which will be key to understanding what’s happening with jobs. This report arrives against a backdrop of inconclusive economic indicators and consumer sentiment. The most recent GDP data show consumers pulling back sharply on spending, prompting debate on whether earnings outlooks need to be marked down.
Former President Donald Trump promised to accomplish this in an unusually ambitious 90 days worth of trade deals, beginning April 2. Yet, this goal is severely underachieved. Analysts view this as indicative of the broader challenges facing the U.S. economy as it strives to adapt to evolving global dynamics.
Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), recently suggested that Europe should become an investors’ safe heaven. This news coincides with a time of huge uncertainty in the U.S. market. This change would enable Europe to assume at least some of the U.S.’s function as a global safe haven. Such a simple change could have a profound effect on global financial markets.
This week is shaping up as make-or-break for investors. It’s the end of the month, and end of the quarter, and even the half-year — a particularly important time of making decisions. If you’re looking for more market and economic updates, today is your lucky day! Along with the US nonfarm payrolls, we’ll get important metrics such as German retail sales and CPI, UK GDP and Chicago Fed and Dallas Fed reports.
It’s impossible to unzip this report without feeling the undercurrent of cautious optimism, because uncertainty still rules the economic landscape. It points out a key statement of “the consumer is pulling back,” signaling a worrisome trend that may significantly dampen future economic growth.
“Liberation Day” – Source not explicitly mentioned.
Additionally, the report features forward-looking analyses of the changing landscape in both U.S. and global markets. The analysis underscores the importance of adapting to changes and encourages market participants to “go with the flow,” suggesting flexibility in decision-making during uncertain times.
As the markets continue to eye upcoming delayed reports and work through these issues, everyone involved is exceedingly on guard. We must be particularly attuned to what economic indicators mean and their implications in the current unprecedented environment.
“Not gonna happen” – Source not explicitly mentioned.