A fragile ceasefire between Hamas and Israel remains in place, teetering on the brink of collapse due to ongoing disputes over obligations. Despite the uncertainty, optimism is emerging in Gaza as support for Hamas declines, and a significant portion of the population expresses hope for a long-term armistice or peace. A recent poll by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) highlights this shift in sentiment, revealing that fewer Palestinians in Gaza view the conflict as their most pressing challenge.
Support for Hamas in Gaza has plummeted from 42% to 21% since October 2023. This decline reflects a broader trend where fewer people see Hamas achieving victory or endorse attacks against Israel. The population's focus appears to be shifting towards long-term peace solutions, with more than 90% expressing optimism about the prospects of an enduring ceasefire.
The PSR poll also indicates that political convictions continue to hold sway over immediate personal safety for many Palestinians in Gaza. The results show a complex landscape of beliefs where "ingroup love"—concern and protection for one's own people—coexists with "outgroup hate," a desire to harm the opposing side, as explained by researchers Scott Atran and Ángel Gómez. This psychological dynamic contributes to the entrenched divisions between Israelis and Palestinians.
Despite the complexities, public opinion in Gaza is rarely discussed due to restrictive access and the ongoing conflict. However, the PSR poll sheds light on these perspectives. A significant portion of Palestinians in Gaza, approximately 25%, view values such as sharia law and opposition to peace with Israel as central to their identity. One in four fully identifies with maximalist ideas of sharia law and hard opposition to peace.
Support for potential solutions remains varied. A two-state solution garners support from 48% of the population in Gaza, while only 5% favor a one-state solution with coexistence under equal rights. Conversely, 27% back a one-state solution governed by strict sharia law. The data suggests growing openness among Gazans to alternatives like a temporary security presence and reconstruction efforts led by Egypt.
These attitudes underscore a deep psychological asymmetry between each side's perceptions of the conflict. While some Palestinians in Gaza cling to traditional political convictions, others look towards new possibilities for resolution, indicating a potential shift towards more pragmatic approaches.