Australia's Foreign Minister Penny Wong has acknowledged that the nation faces a "permanent state of contest" in the Pacific region. Her statement comes amid growing concerns over China's expanding influence in the Pacific island nations. Recent developments have seen Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown signing deals with China, bypassing public consultations and excluding New Zealand from the discussions. These agreements mark a significant shift in the geopolitical landscape of the Pacific, raising questions about regional stability and alliances.
The Cook Islands has maintained a "free association" relationship with New Zealand since the 1960s. However, Prime Minister Brown's recent actions indicate a desire to distance the Cook Islands from this historical connection. The deals with China have raised alarms due to their unprecedented nature, as they represent agreements with a non-traditional ally. This move has not only stirred public discontent within the Cook Islands but also drawn criticism from politicians.
The strategic maneuvering in the Pacific has not gone unnoticed by major powers. China's ambassador to Australia, Xiao Qian, described Beijing's activities as "all part of that little great game that's going on between Australia and China and New Zealand." This statement underscores the intricate diplomatic interplay in the region, where Australia's national interests increasingly clash with China's ambitions.
The United States, traditionally a dominant force in regional security, now faces scrutiny under its current administration. The commitment of the U.S. to its Pacific allies remains uncertain, as expressed by experts who note the shifting dynamics. China, on the other hand, has ramped up efforts to strengthen its ties with strategically significant Pacific island nations through aid, infrastructure projects, and security deals.
Australia's isolation in the region has become more apparent with recent incidents involving Chinese warships in the Tasman Sea. The presence of these warships has prompted Australia and New Zealand to closely monitor their movements along Australia's eastern coast. This development highlights the growing military dimension of the geopolitical contest in the Pacific.
Euan Graham, an expert on regional security, remarked on China's strategic advantage, stating:
"It's also making the point that in the numbers game, China will always be ahead of smaller countries with smaller navies and Australia's navy is at a historic low." – Euan Graham
He further noted the political rather than military nature of China's actions in the region:
"I wouldn't think of them as military acts, so much as political acts using military hardware," – Mr Sora (of the Lowy Institute)
The Cook Islands' agreements with China have added complexity to its unique relationship with New Zealand. While Cook Islanders hold New Zealand citizenship, Prime Minister Brown's pivot toward China has sparked debates about national identity and sovereignty. Jackie Tuara, a prominent figure in Cook Islands society, emphasized the cultural ties between the two nations:
"Connects us politically and connects us to our brothers and sisters of Aotearoa – they left our shores to sail to Aotearoa. We need to remember that" – Jackie Tuara
As many as 100,000 Cook Islanders reside in New Zealand and Australia, creating a complex web of familial and economic ties that complicate political decisions at home.
The situation has not been without political repercussions for Prime Minister Brown. He recently survived a vote of no confidence in parliament related to his agreements with China. Public sentiment remains divided, with some expressing concern about China's potential influence over national resources:
"We don't want to see our land and our oceans sold to the highest bidder. Those resources are for us – for our children, for their future" – Jackie Tuara
In response to China's growing presence, the U.S. has increased its diplomatic efforts across the region. However, this move underscores the broader challenges faced by smaller nations caught between competing global powers.
James Laurenceson, an expert on international relations, highlighted Australia's position amid these tensions:
"Canberra will be contesting every single move that Beijing tries to make … and it reflects the fact that Canberra and Beijing have diverging strategic interests." – James Laurenceson
Laurenceson further elaborated on the delicate balancing act required:
"So you've got to be able to ride both these horses at the same time." – James Laurenceson
Philipp Ivanov, another expert on Pacific affairs, emphasized the agency of Pacific island nations amidst this geopolitical chess game:
"The Pacific island nations have their own agency, their own motivations and their own capabilities" – Philipp Ivanov
Ivanov also described the dynamic as a "whack-a-mole kind of game," reflecting the constantly shifting allegiances and strategies at play.