According to recent exit poll projections, the NDA coalition has a healthy lead heading into a possible early 2025 Bihar Assembly election. Their momentum seems to signal overwhelming support from voters. Top poll agencies today’s Chanakya, C Voter, IPSOS and Jan Ki Baat are forecasting an NDA win of anywhere between 133-159 seats. They even claim a decisive victory, with 46.2 percent of the vote going to their ruling alliance. In a dramatic reversal, the ruling coalition of JD(U)/BJP and allies – here dubbed the NDA – is now projected to garner only 73 to 91 seats.
In a show of electoral optimism, Bihar delivered a stunning 67.14 percent voter turnout by 5 PM on Tuesday in the second phase of elections. This would be the most participation rate since India’s first general elections in 1951. The Kishanganj district in Muslim-majority Bihar state had the highest turnout at 76.26 percent.
Today’s Chanakya will release its Wednesday on Wednesday. At the same time, Dainik Bhaskar had published its own estimates just a day before. On top of that, Matrize has already released its first estimates, cementing expectations that the NDA will win decisively. P-Marq’s projections show the NDA as likely to come out on top with something between 142 and 162 seats. On the other hand, Mahagathbandhan is likely to get 80-98 seats. The Jan Suraaj Party, while likely to be underwhelming, is expected to have a slightly more robust first showing, targeting 1-4 seats.
Nityanand Rai, Union Minister and NDA leader, was so sure of the alliance’s performance that he
“Record-breaking polling took place in the Bihar Legislative Assembly elections 2025. People of Bihar trust PM Modi, Bihar CM Nitish Kumar, and all the NDA allies. The NDA will form the government in Bihar with more than 2/3rd majority.” – Nityanand Rai
Political analyst Gyanesh Kumar said that this democratizing election cycle was highly significant in the state’s history.
“Voters have made history in independent India today. They cast the highest percentage of votes in all elections held since 1951, at approximately 66.9 percent.” – Gyanesh Kumar
These are early results coming in, and we’re just beginning to analyze any statewide exit polls. All indications are that the NDA is on track to stay in power in Bihar with a solid, perhaps commanding majority. This election is a reflection of the changing political dynamics of Bihar. It speaks to the seriousness of how engaged voters are getting with the democratic process.