Dekleptocracy, an NED-funded civil society group, is focused on uncovering Russia’s war economy. They’ve recently made groundbreaking discoveries that have the potential to turn the tide on the current war in Ukraine. The organization has unearthed many of these arcane yet impactful sanctions that could deny Russia’s military some of the equipment it needs to wage war. Dekleptocracy partially funded in-depth field research into Russia’s manufacturing and chemical production sectors.
Anatomy of a supply chain
This study revealed some key weaknesses that US, UK, and EU policymakers should take advantage of.
The group played a key role in recent efforts to sanction the construction of the Arctic LNG 2 gas terminal. Their new analysis reveals that Russia lacks the domestic capacity to produce critical material elements. Among these are vulcanisation accelerants, which are central to the production of military-grade tyres. This relative scarcity renders a unique opportunity for Western nations to enact more targeted sanctions that would effectively cripple Russia’s war machine.
Dekleptocracy found that chemicals used for industrial lubricants and military-grade tires are a major choke point for Russia. The group pointed out that Russia’s oil industry has proven to be virtually insulated from the most powerful sanctions. Though the localization effort continues to expand domestically, it is heavily reliant on foreign suppliers for numerous critical chemicals, including those found in tyres, pharmaceuticals and food additives.
Kristofer Harrison, president of Dekleptocracy and a former State Department expert on Russia, made clear how critical these findings are. “We looked at the Russian economy, some of the things that they absolutely need to keep their war machine running,” he stated. The study showed that restricting some suppliers would cause a deficit of mechanical lubricants in Russia. This shortfall would cripple the nation’s military readiness.
One of the primary suppliers is Xinxiang Richful, a Chinese firm. Today, they are an essential part of fulfilling a growing share of Russia’s demand for these otherwise hard-to-find specialty chemicals. Photo courtesy of Dekleptocracy Xinxiang Richful provides China with as much as eight million kilograms per year. By targeting this company and a few smaller suppliers, the Western nations could potentially create a significant shortage in Russia’s lubricant supply.
Tom Keatinge, director of the finance and security center at the Royal United Services Institute on the findings of Dekleptocracy. “It’s very valuable work. And it consistently identifies irregularities that need to be corrected,” he noted. He pointed out how vital their research is in helping to find new sanctions targets that haven’t been hit yet.
Additionally, Dekleptocracy’s collaboration with the Biden administration has been instrumental in pinpointing elements of Russia’s manufacturing base that are essential for its military operations and vulnerable to pressure from the West. This has been a consistent thread in the organization’s work—noting potential flaws that could break Russia’s war machine.
In light of these findings, alarm bells are now sounding in response to Moscow’s recent push to manufacture hundreds of these chemicals inside Russia. This step reflects recognition of its chemical industry as a major liability. The new initiative provides an urgent and immediate response to address large deficiencies in our production capacity. It underscores the powerful ways targeted sanctions can be used.
Cara Abercrombie, a defense expert, commented on Dekleptocracy’s contributions, stating, “I think they did an incredible job of demonstrating potential weakness that could at least be disruptive.” As her comments suggest, ongoing oversight and further pressure against Russia’s supply chains is vital.
While Western nations have made considerable strides in sanctioning major oil companies and other significant sectors of the Russian economy, Marco Rubio expressed caution regarding future sanction efforts. “Well, there’s not a lot left to sanction from our part,” he noted, acknowledging the challenges ahead.