The economy of Northern Ireland demonstrated robust growth in the third quarter of 2024, expanding by 1.3% compared to the previous quarter. This marks a 3% increase from the same period last year, highlighting a strong economic recovery. Key sectors such as construction continued their upward trajectory, while manufacturing showed signs of recuperation after underperforming in the previous year. However, recent surveys suggest a potential slowdown may be on the horizon.
Revised data reveals that the first quarter's growth was more substantial than initially estimated, reaching 1.9% instead of the originally forecasted 1.4%. Conversely, the second quarter's performance was adjusted downward, indicating a marginal contraction rather than the anticipated 0.4% growth. These revisions underline a more nuanced understanding of the economic landscape in Northern Ireland.
Despite these positive developments, there are indications of a possible deceleration in economic activity as 2024 draws to a close. The Ulster Bank's monthly business activity survey reported a decline in private sector activity in December, marking the first drop in over a year. This trend is echoed by findings from a quarterly survey conducted by the NI Chamber of Commerce, which revealed that a significant majority of local firms anticipate adverse effects from the forthcoming Westminster budget.
It's important to note that while Northern Ireland's economy may have outpaced the UK average, comparisons between NI and UK figures are not entirely straightforward. The UK's economic assessments incorporate a more sophisticated measure of public sector output, which can affect direct comparisons. Nonetheless, Northern Ireland's economic performance remains commendable.