The release of the November jobs report date has already been pushed back from December 5 to December 16. This lack of timeliness and the subsequent delay have tempered expectations among economic forecasters and the public alike. Then yesterday, the BLS announced a delay. They mentioned the complexity of needing additional time to collect and process data following the federal government’s shutdown from October 1 through November 12. That’s especially true now, after the shutdown interrupted the collection of many key economic data points. This had a hugely negative effect on the provision of timely, usable information to American businesses and households.
The upcoming November report is moving its date of release. It will instead be released on a Tuesday in mid-December, rather than the usual first Friday. During the shutdown, the BLS and other federal statistical agencies were unable to function. Consequently, all data collection, processing and distribution had to be suspended. This delay has huge implications for the future. It impacts how analysts and average Americans alike should think about job growth and the overall state of the economy.
Effects of the Government Shutdown
The recent government shutdown has frozen this vital economic data at an especially critical juncture. At the same time, nearly every federal employee experienced furloughs during this time. This lack of preparedness prevented agencies such as the BLS from collecting and disseminating vital economic indicators. The shutdown delayed the release of the November jobs report and it impacted the data for October as well.
Here’s why the October jobs data is notable in this regard. Or it might paint a picture of a notable net loss of 65,000 jobs due to data collection being stopped by the pandemic-triggered shutdown. Additionally, reports show that the public sector has all but lost an estimated 120,000 jobs. The private sector boomed, as non-farm private employment increased by just shy of 55,000 jobs in Oct.
As the BLS gets ready for the November report, analysts are eager to see both months’ data combined. The new longer collection period provides a fuller and more comprehensive picture of trends in the employment landscape. We hope this change leads to fewer corrections in subsequent reports.
Expectations for Job Growth and Unemployment Rate
The November jobs report is expected to confirm that we’ve added about 40,000 jobs. Employment analysts forecast that the unemployment rate will stay level at 4.4%. An industry-specific breakdown of job gains will be especially important in revealing which sectors are driving employment growth.
Daniel Zhao, a senior economist with Glassdoor.com, cautioned against predicting the trajectory of the next report given the new operational disruptions the government has faced in recent weeks. “These government shutdowns don’t come around very often, and so there’s always a little bit of uncertainty when you have an operation as large as what the Bureau of Labor Statistics does for the jobs report,” Zhao stated.
As analysts begin gearing up for the release, Zhao shared a note of skepticism about how best to interpret results. “So, I think it bears being humble going into the report and being prepared for anything,” he remarked.
Data Collection Challenges
The BLS has already warned that data not received electronically by the end of October will NOT be reflected in the November jobs report. This new set-up should produce data that is more complete and less subject to revision than regular monthly reports. Analysts are by no means blind to the fact that retroactively remembering employment states can be very difficult for respondents.
In reality, it’s quite difficult to survey people about their past travel behavior,” Zhao explained. He elaborated on how people’s recall diminishes quickly after time passes, suggesting that focusing on forward-looking data may be more effective in understanding current trends.
Tyler Schipper, the other analyst, warned that recent job gains are not indicative of what lies ahead. “I think the September jobs number was probably a high-water mark for what we’re going to see in the more recent data,” Schipper commented.