The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is set to release the November jobs report on Tuesday, December 16. The Employment Situation report will come out with a significant lag. Even more disappointing is that this setback occurred as a result of issues created by last month’s government shutdown. This month is going to be make or break. Its purpose is to provide a timely, national, and holistic picture of the employment scene.
The November jobs report will offer insights into the labor market that have been lacking since the October household survey was not published because of data collection issues. Our next report will drill down on some key metrics, including nonfarm payrolls and average hourly earnings. These numbers come directly from the new jobs data for October. Together, these changes will allow analysts and policymakers to better understand employment trends in real-time.
The monthlong delay in releasing the November report has only fueled these worries. This is a particularly important report since it’s the last Employment Situation report of the year. In a snafu caused by the government shutdown, the BLS had originally planned on releasing the October report even earlier, but was forced to delay it. Here’s why the November report is particularly key for understanding labor market dynamics. It arrives at a critical moment as we look towards the end of 2023 and beyond.
Last month, the labor market experienced a paradigm shift. In March, for the first time ever, federal workers enrolled in the federal government’s deferred resignation program were off payroll. In any case, even with these changes, the government shutdown will likely not directly affect net federal payrolls. Furloughed workers continued to be paid throughout the survey’s reference week. This intentionally softened the immediate impact of the shutdown on the topline employment numbers.
We estimate a federal employment decline of roughly -125,000. Non-partisan staff largely attribute this drop to an unprecedented, self-imposed hiring freeze. Moreover, other estimates indicate that payroll employment decreased by about 60,000 in October. Our November report will be sure to consider these influences. It should give you a glimpse into what the future of federal employment looks like.
Bottom line, the November jobs report is set up to provide timely, valuable insight into today’s job market. Having data from November and the rest of October will better illuminate employment trends. This new knowledge arrives just in time, with the end of the fiscal year looming. Analysts and economists will be watching the findings closely. Because of this, these results could have a profound impact on future economic policy and labor market strategies.