In an unprecedented move, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán just negotiated a $590 million deal with former President Donald Trump. He argues that this deal provides for a “financial shield” that may be valued at up to $20 billion for Hungary. This prediction follows a tête-à-tête between the two heads of state. While sharing this anecdote, Orbán divulged that Trump agreed to exempt Hungary forever from U.S. sanctions forbidding the import of Russian oil and gas. As the White House struck back, it’s important to note that the exemption is only for one year.
Even in his announcement, Orbán displayed a striking bravado regarding his ongoing negotiations with Trump. He claimed that the exemption from sanctions would continue to hold as long as he and Trump were both still in office.
“The exemption from sanctions is valid as long as he is president there and I’m the prime minister here,” – Viktor Orbán
Local governments have indeed been granted an exemption, Orbán further argues. Yet the U.S. State Department and Congress have never been officially notified that it has. A congressional aide noted, “All we have heard is that there is a one-year waiver.” Another aide added, “We will be receiving some sort of Congressional notification, but we have not received that yet.”
Orbán’s administration intends to purchase up to $600 million of U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG). They have further pledged $700 million in new funds for military equipment sourced from the US. These agreements are aimed at increasing Hungary’s energy diversification as Hungary becomes more dependent on Russian energy.
Still, these advancements have raised eyebrows and created doubt among U.S. lawmakers. Even more concerning to some Congressional Republicans are Orbán’s interests expressed on national security issues and his close relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin. First, they do not believe Hungary would be ready to cut off all Russian energy supplies. The war in Ukraine raging on presents serious geopolitical dynamics that further complicate the equation.
“Orbán is still maintaining his close relations with Putin, and he is not being helpful to Zelenskyy,” – a congressional aide remarked.
The Unified Hungarian Opposition is calling on the government to veto the $700 million arms deal with the U.S. Furthermore, as Hungary hasn’t taken steps to cut dependence on Russian energy since before 2022, they think it worthless. Critics contend that these financial commitments may already be harming Hungary’s long-term interests.
Yet diplomatic sources say that the U.S. administration is still wary of fully embracing Orbán’s government. One source noted, “Orbán hopes words will be enough to keep him above water,” reflecting concerns about his dwindling support at home and abroad.
Orbán’s Fidesz party is portraying the recent FDI as a political victory for their anti-Soros agenda. Despite the anger and resistance of these same opposition party, they stay undeterred. Nonetheless, the prospect of a revolt at the polls hangs in the balance, as anger over Orbán’s increasingly authoritarian policies swells among Hungarians.
Marco Rubio, a Republican senator, warned against going overboard with sanctions on Hungary. He stated, “In the case of the pipelines on oil and gas, it’s a one-year extension, because it would be deeply traumatic to their economy to cut them off immediately.”
The state of relations between Hungary and the United States continues to be characterized by complexity and strife. Orbán celebrates his recent assertions as triumphs. U.S. lawmakers and constituents remain worried about the underlying Rust Belt rage against his administration’s policies and world affairs.