Poland is confronting a dramatic demographic crisis as its birth rate drops to historic lows. Societal loneliness is a big factor in this leakage, and cash incentives aren’t going to be the solution. As a result, Poland’s fertility rate has crashed to an all-time low of 1.1 children per woman. This shocking drop leaves the country tied for the bottom ranks of global fertility. Projections imply that this trend will only get worse, with some estimates predicting a drop to 1.05 by 2024. Whatever the reason, Poland is in the middle of a crisis despite strong economic growth. Usually, a low gender pay gap correlates with an increase in birth rates, but not so here.
Since 2002, Poland has managed to cut unemployment from 20% to a staggering 2.8%. Since 1990, the country’s GDP per capita has gone up eight times. This terrific growth is no less remarkable when taking into account the difference in cost of living. In addition, incomes have over doubled since 1950, providing a relatively stable economic environment that in other circumstances would typically promote people having more children.
The reality is starkly different. Poland’s population has decreased by 1.5 million since 2014, raising concerns about the sustainability of its workforce and future generations. This demographic shift is further complicated by a severe gender ratio imbalance primarily found in urban areas. Over the numerous cities, like Warsaw, Łódź and Kraków, the number of women to each man is at least 110 women per 100 men.
This demographic crisis also parallels some very frightening social trends. Approximately one in four Poles younger than 45 say they have no contact with their fathers at all. Moreover, one in thirteen has recently become cut off from their mothers. The loneliness epidemic is most severe among the younger generation. Almost 50% of Poles under 30 are single, and young people between 18 and 24 report feeling more isolated than the over-75s.
The psychological wellbeing of young Poles has become an urgent issue. According to one 2024 report, almost two in five young Polish men are virgins, not having had sex for at least a year. Yet this trend points to an increasing gap in their own intimate relationships.
Public health practitioners have seen a troubling 145% rise in psychological consultations in a decade. This increase raises awareness of the mental health crisis that is worsening with a huge demographic shift. Continuing in this direction would be a mistake. It might have unintended effects, such as lowering birth rates and making people feel more lonely.
While the Polish government has introduced various financial incentives to encourage family growth, such as the “800 Plus” program that allocates nearly 8% of the national budget to cash transfers, these measures have not yielded the desired results in combating loneliness or increasing fertility rates.
Experts contend that tackling the epidemic with strictly financial incentives won’t be enough without addressing societal problems. Indeed, loneliness is an epidemic in contemporary Polish society. For too many of the U.S.’ 330 million residents, the harrowing reality of disconnection remains an everyday concern despite the country’s economic, technological and innovative progress.
Overwhelmingly, it’s a critical role in this issue that goes unaddressed. Expectations about family life and social connectivity have changed radically over the past few decades. At the same time, a majority of millennials are leaning into their careers and personal development before putting down roots. This change asks us to reconsider what society should expect of citizens, and what citizens should aspire to, in modern Poland.