As the federal government shutdown continues into its second month, a crisis is accelerating the urge for a consensus from President Donald Trump and Congress. Goldman Sachs economists Ronnie Walker and Alec Phillips pointed to some key dates that might speed up negotiations. A looming paycheck for 1.3 million active-duty service members is scheduled for October 15, which may motivate legislators and the White House to prioritize reaching an agreement.
As the economists warned, should lawmakers let this payment date pass without a solution, the political consequences may be great. “We believe the military pay date on Oct. 15 could be an important forcing event for a compromise to restore funding and expect the shutdown to end by mid-October,” said Walker and Phillips.
Goldman Sachs estimates that a short-term continuing resolution is the most probable scenario. They don’t rule out the chance of a long shutdown going into November. This situation would further inflame the public outrage, especially if they start cutting important services and benefits.
Another important deadline comes this Friday, October 13, when Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) benefits run out. Additionally, open enrollment for the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) begins on November 1, creating further urgency for lawmakers to act. Congress will be going out for Thanksgiving on November 21. This deadline puts a greater sense of urgency to breaking the present stalemate before lawmakers leave for the holiday.
Ed Mills, a Washington policy analyst at Raymond James, underscored striking doubts. Military pay, TSA operations, and delayed mortgage payments for military members would be enough to trigger a bipartisan compromise. “Expect pressure to build on both parties to reach a compromise before then,” he stated.
Like it or not, President Trump has thrown down the gauntlet. He warned that without a resolution in the near future, temporary furloughs from the closure may become permanent. This threat only adds to the urgency of the ongoing negotiations. After decades of inaction, both parties are squarely on the record and face growing public pressure for not coming up with a solution.
Pimco analysts remarked on the complexities of the current shutdown, stating, “Shutdowns are easy, but reopenings are harder, and this one – which is the first full shutdown since 2013 – seems particularly intractable, at least for now.” That rejoinder is a telling expression of the deep difficulties on both sides as they attempt to work through their differences amid strict deadlines.