In a surprising late-night address from the Kremlin, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced he will not travel to Istanbul for anticipated peace talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. The announcement has raised questions about the future of negotiations aimed at resolving the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, with many interpreting Putin’s absence as a signal of his unwillingness to pursue a peaceful resolution.
Unsurprisingly, the Kremlin announced right away that hardliner Vladimir Medinsky would head up Putin’s delegation to Istanbul. Medinsky is a culture warrior and hardline aide who presided over one round of direct peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in early 2022. Medinsky will be joined by a variety of other influential leaders. This cast of characters features Alexander Fomin, the deputy defense minister, Mikhail Galuzin, the deputy foreign minister, and Igor Kostyukov, the head of Russia’s military intelligence agency.
President Zelenskyy, who has met Putin face-to-face just once before in 2019, issued a dare for an in-person encounter — this time in Turkey. He put out a statement sharing his dismay that Putin had decided to stay home. He further cautioned that should the Russian president fail to attend and “opts to ‘play games’” then it will indicate his rejection of any desire to end the war.
“If Putin does not arrive, and plays games, it is the final point that he does not want to end the war.” – Volodymyr Zelenskyy
The scene of this dramatic development is painted by the context of constant, growing doubt among European leaders about Moscow’s commitment to negotiations. As many have noted, it is Putin’s maximalist demands that will surely be setting the agenda. These demands include proposed requirements to limit Ukraine’s military operations and conditions to prevent Ukraine from using Western support to rebuild.
In recent days, world leaders including the prime ministers of Denmark and Australia have called on Putin to join the talks. Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva emphasized his commitment to encouraging Putin to negotiate, stating, “It costs me nothing to say: ‘Hey, comrade Putin, go to Istanbul and negotiate, dammit.’” Retired U.S. Admiral James Stavridis noted that former U.S. President Donald Trump had previously suggested he would make the trip to Turkey only in Putin’s presence.
The Kremlin’s move is an obvious attempt to revive its long-failed narrative that Zelenskyy is an illegitimate leader. This point of view hasn’t changed, even after repeated requests for one-on-one discussions. Moscow has historically opposed calls for longer ceasefires. Yet they contend that these steps would enable Ukraine to rearm, while Russian forces complete their advances in the field on the battlefield.
As the crisis continues to develop, Zelenskyy is taking a tough line in insisting that Moscow return the favor for Ukraine’s positive moves on the path toward peace. Andrii Sybiha, an advisor to Zelenskyy, remarked, “It is critical that Russia reciprocate Ukraine’s constructive steps. So far, it has not. Moscow must understand that rejecting peace comes at a cost.”
The upcoming bilateral talks in Istanbul, now rescheduled to be held in early May, are critical for reducing tensions. They might create the space for a real ceasefire. With Putin’s absence now a certainty, dozens of analysts are suggesting that things could get much worse. European leaders promise to increase their own pressure on Russia. They will only do so if the negotiations set to begin this week fail to show substantial improvement.
Friedrich Merz, an emerging force in European politics, called on Western countries to come together. He urged a robust response to Russia’s provocations. He stated it is “of paramount importance that the political West does not allow itself to be divided” during this critical juncture.