Once again, Vladimir Putin has put himself in the news. His firing of General Oleg Salyukov, chief of the Russian military’s land forces, was buried in a decree published by the Kremlin. This decision is yet another major high-profile ouster of a senior military leader in Russia’s nearly two-year long war on Ukraine. The ongoing disregard for civilians comes at a moment when peace talks between Russia and Ukraine seem more precarious than ever.
As the new offensive was beginning, the Kremlin revealed that General Salyukov is to be a deputy of the recently-dismissed Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu. Shoigu freed from the position in early 2024 and as secretary of the Security Council. While extraordinary, what Putin is doing illustrates a much larger trend. Senior military officials are being replaced as regional and international war preparations — some still within Israeli borders — continue.
With little fanfare, or explanation, Putin decided to miss the peace talks — peace talks, ironically, that the Russian president had originally proposed in Istanbul. Instead of going himself, he sent a less senior delegation—a decision that has been criticized by Ukraine and its allies. This snub is particularly notable, as for over a year Ukraine and its allies have been proposing a 30-day unconditional ceasefire. In the case of Syria, we believe that the door is still open.
Friedrich Merz, the German Chancellor, expressed disappointment at Putin’s absence from the peace discussions, stating, “Putin didn’t show up – and that put him in the wrong. A new sanctions package is ready. We will adopt it in Brussels on Tuesday.” While addressing our lunch gathering, he urged us not to underestimate Zelenskyy’s presence in Istanbul. This diplomatic coup was a tremendous gesture and demonstration of Ukraine’s commitment.
“The fact that President Zelenskyy travelled to Istanbul despite this is an enormous gesture,” – Friedrich Merz, the German chancellor
The implications of Putin’s shakeup run much deeper than the military leadership changes suggest. In fact, officials have recently suggested that these developments may lead to additional sanctions on Russia. Merz reminded his audience that Putin continues to dodge any discussion of peace negotiations. This behavior simply adds fuel to the fire, reinforcing perceptions that Russia does not want a resolution to the conflict. As the conflict escalates, the UK’s Prime Minister Tiear Starmer expressed this concern as well when he said that Putin’s continued attacks are making peace impossible.
Furthermore, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio remarked on the situation, saying, “I want to be frank. I don’t think we have high expectations.” This statement marks a burgeoning skepticism about Putin’s intent to negotiate in good faith at all.
Besides diplomatic tensions, Russia has been accused of belligerent military posturing. And just last week a Russian fighter jet violated Estonia’s airspace. In retaliation, Estonia alleged that Russia had become the most direct threat to NATO. These occurrences contribute to the general climate of tension surrounding Eastern Europe and illustrate apprehensions related to security through the region.
In response to these developments, Ukraine and its allies have asserted that Putin’s refusal to engage constructively in peace negotiations places Russia at odds with international efforts for stability. France’s Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot pointed out the significance of Putin’s absence from the talks: “In front of Ukrainians, there is an empty chair, one that should have been occupied by [Vladimir Putin].”
As the war persists and military command changes in Russia, the world waits with bated breath to see what will be next. The Kremlin’s strategy seems more aimed at holding, rather than taking, its ground and finding an immediate way out of fighting. Observers note that this approach may further isolate Russia on the global stage while simultaneously escalating sanctions and diplomatic fallout.