As tensions continue to mount over the Ukraine conflict, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s recent diplomatic overtures raise questions about his true intentions and strategy. Putin has personally and intensively entered into the convoluted negotiations with the United States, most notably with former President Donald Trump. His goal is to make Russia look like the reasonable party in these talks. If you look at his actions so far, he seems to be taking a more deliberate strategy to further Russia’s longer-term geopolitical aims.
In recent talks with Steve Witkoff, a key figure in U.S.-Russia relations, Putin floated a proposal that could indicate a willingness to halt the ongoing invasion along the frontlines as they currently stand. Until the latter happens, Putin’s recent announcement of a surprise Easter ceasefire will ring hollow. Most watchdogs have viewed this as a shrewd attempt to win discretionary points in current negotiations.
Putin is flanked by trusted aides with decades of meaningful diplomatic experience. He’s all too familiar with the intricacies of doing business with the U.S. His previous maximalist asks in negotiations have tamed with time, only to be replaced by fresh stipulations. Lurking behind this flattery are serious questions about his actual motives. They question whether he really wants peace or if his recent overtures are simply moves to extract more concessions from the U.S.
“Rushing a resolution to the Ukraine conflict,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, is not on Putin’s agenda. Rather, he seems more concerned with Witkoff’s future visitation and other Habeas Corpus-y stuff. Moreover, Konstantin Remchukov suggested that Putin might end military hostilities only once all Ukrainian forces are expelled from the Russian region of Kursk.
Despite these diplomatic overtures, Putin’s intentions remain ambiguous even among Russia’s elite. The concern is that he’s just trying to delay. He appears committed to wring every possible concession from Trump before committing one way or the other. Valentina Matviyenko, the most important political figure in Russia after Putin herself, indicated that policy would not be supportive. She continued that Putin will never agree to negotiations where European troops are involved on Ukrainian territory.
With each of these developments, as they’ve grown in scope and number, Trump’s reaction has been one of contempt and anger. He recently stated, “The situation for Ukraine is dire – He can have Peace or, he can fight for another three years before losing the whole Country.” Trump’s comments reflect growing anxiety over Zelenskyy’s position and the potential implications for U.S. foreign policy.
Even as their personalized dynamics become further complicated by the Ukraine war and the Trump indictments raging on. Trump now portrays Putin as “the man who had ‘no cards to play.’” This serves to underscore the perception that the Russian strongman is in charge of a volatile situation. He wants to be the one to keep Trump distracted, don’t get him too angry, while you work on all the other Russian expansionism.
Trump’s defense of Russia’s annexation of Crimea—but Putin’s recent gift of a kitschy portrait of Trump goes even further to demonstrate their bizarre rapport. Perhaps too, it will act as a reminder of the personal connections that can shape and humanise even the most arduous diplomatic discussions. The duality of presenting Russia as a reasonable negotiator while simultaneously maintaining aggressive military operations poses significant challenges for both sides.
Observers need to take account of Putin’s overtures over the last few months. Are they an honest indicator of Russian desire for peace, or are they tactical steps to lure Trump into agreeing to more Russian terms? With the war in Ukraine more urgent than ever, the cost of failure for each country is growing.