Vladimir Putin’s military forces are inflicting heavy losses and making slow but steady gains in Ukraine. They are slowly working their way to the strategically important city of Pokrovsk. This progress comes at a time when Putin remains undeterred. He’s not rattled by the personal warnings that ex-U.S. President Donald Trump is sending him about the war. Analysts argue that Putin’s decision making process is immune to outside influence. He does have a singular vision for the war in Ukraine, seeing it as an existential fight for Western democracy.
To their great surprise, the Kremlin has recently seen Trump take a hard stand. To date, though, Putin has not publicly responded to the threats, and no Russian officials have pointed any fire on the ex-president. This reticence underscores a broader strategy in which Putin aims to navigate international relations while prioritizing his goals in Ukraine. As Alexander Dugin, a prominent Russian political theorist, stated, “We see the United States not as a neutral arbiter, but as a party to the war against us in Ukraine.”
Putin knows that he cannot emerge from this fighting, however it ends, without what is perceived as a decisive victory. His maximalist demands to destroy Ukraine’s sovereignty just won’t go away. This repetition is nothing short of his iron will to change the geopolitical landscape in Eastern Europe. The Russian president remains confident that his forces are making headway and believes that Ukraine’s defenses may soon weaken under relentless pressure.
Over the past few months, Putin has done everything in his power to butter Trump up. He’s attempting to establish a personal rapport that could improve Russia’s hand. Despite this outreach, including six phone calls between the leaders, there appears to be a significant misreading of Trump’s reactions. Putin’s hopes for a warm, constructive relationship with former president Donald Trump were apparently misplaced.
In interviews, former high-ranking Kremlin officials offered their own take on how Putin’s overtures have gone awry. One official remarked, “Moscow is disappointed and upset that it didn’t work out with Trump.” This sentiment reflects a broader understanding that while Trump may be influential, Putin’s ambitions regarding Ukraine will not be compromised for better ties with Washington.
As the conflict drags on, Putin is doubling down on the use of these brutal, indiscriminate military tactics. His forces use swarm drone tactics, launching thousands of drones every night to wear down Ukrainian defenses. In part, that’s because the Kremlin is preparing for an escalation of U.S. sanctions. As part of the wider strategy they have for foreign policy, they want a steady stream of weapons to Ukraine.
Even with these external pressures, it seems that Putin has no plans to back down on his strategy. “Putin gave Trump time to change that. Time is running out,” Dugin noted, emphasizing the urgency surrounding the conflict. Even within Russia’s foreign policy community, Kremlin observers think that “a lot can happen in 50 days.” They see Trump as wildly unpredictable, emotionally volatile and easily manipulated by others.
It’s worth reviewing what Trump has said about his calls with Putin. He recounted, “I get home, I’d say: ‘First lady, I had the most wonderful talk with Vladimir. I think we’re finished.’” He acknowledged that reality often contradicts expectations: “And then I’d turn on the television, or she’ll say to me one time: ‘Well that’s strange, because they just bombed a nursing home.’”
This tangled web of personal diplomacy and geopolitical maneuvering shows the quagmire each leader finds himself in. Trump wants his relationship with Putin to be a path to peace. Putin’s clear strategy and brutal ambition have made him laser-focused on achieving his aims in Ukraine.