The United States has enjoyed an unprecedented boom in tariff revenues. Over the first 16 business days of April 2024, which extends until April 22, the nation has brought in a record-setting USD 15 billion. That sum is more than twice the revenue that was collected during the same timeframe last year. That last point gets to the crux of why the chart is so damning. This data arrives amidst heightened fiscal consolidation and new tariff impositions to tackle both internal and external economic shocks.
On April 22, in a single day, the U.S. Treasury collected an astounding USD 11.7 billion in tariffs. It placed them well for the month-to-date total, with an impressive 130% year-over-year increase against the same days in 2024’s February. Recent tariff announcements—most notably, the announcement made on April 2—have resulted in a large revenue surge. These changes are having a big effect on the collection rates. The Treasury typically collects about 80% of its monthly revenue on the 16th business day of each month. This trend is consistent with the fiscal data we saw in April.
The United States is on pace to collect about USD 100 billion in tariffs this year. That’s the base projection, but projections show that another USD 140 billion could be produced—constituting a mind-blowing 100-140% increase over previous years. These stats paint a rosy picture of U.S. tariff revenue collection—but there’s more to the story. It is projected to be 2.0 to 2.4 times above last year.
While experts praised the revenue growth, they caution it may not be sufficient. These raises may be insufficient to pay for the fiscal impacts associated with the proposed expansion of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TJCA). The estimated additional revenue from tariffs implemented thus far is projected at an annualized rate just below 0.4% of GDP.
“The US collected record-high customs duties of USD 15bn for the first 16 business days of April (through 22 April), according to Treasury Department data; this is more than double the revenue collected over the same period last year. On 22 April alone the Treasury collected USD 11.7bn. Based on this, we estimate additional revenue from the tariffs implemented so far at an annualised rate just below 0.4% of GDP.”
The consequences of these tariff revenues are extensive. This $70 billion increase in tariff collections has the potential to increase GDP by almost 0.4% on an annualized basis. It’s not yet been made clear if this will raise sufficient revenue to counteract inflationary effects resulting from these fiscal shifts.
“Moreover, there is a risk of a noticeable – and possibly persistent – pop in inflation, without generating enough revenues to pay for tax cuts and a flatter deficit path.”
The current revenue numbers are impressive, but they do not indicate a game-changing turn in state or local governments’ ability to fund a better future. Economists say that increased revenue collections are a healthy indication. They don’t think these changes will radically change the overall fiscal picture.
“So far, the data suggests higher revenue collection, but that the increment is not a game-changer for government funding.”
Speculating further, if tariffs stay at or around current tariffs, U.S. revenue could see continued gradual upticks. The expected tariff-driven increase is almost 0.5% of GDP. That translates to an average increase of approximately 4.5% in tariff rates.