The political situation inside Gaza is tumultuous and fluid. Local militia groups, allegedly funded and trained by Israel, are helping reverse Hamas’s two-decade-old stranglehold on power. One of the main leaders of the militia, Hossam al-Astal, stated that Hamas should vacate the territory. If adopted, such a statement would mark a major shift in local power dynamics. As of October 17th, that number has more than doubled with over 220 violent incidents leading to almost 400 Palestinian deaths. The humanitarian crisis is worsening at an unprecedented rate.
Hamas has come under growing pressure from rival armed groups that have appeared throughout Gaza, including the Popular Forces. To date, Israeli military and security services have been literally creating, arming, and training these local forces at the expense of Hamas. This support has provided militia leaders like al-Astal with substantial new confidence. They are now unapologetically declaring that the time has come for Hamas to lose its grip.
In June, just last month, Hamas killed 50 members of the popular forces. This move underscores their unwillingness to suffer any immediate encroachment from nascent threats. A surprise attack by Hamas on militia forces in northern Gaza killed numerous members. Victims counted police officers, clan leaders, and people suspected of cooperating with Israel or engaging in wartime profiteering.
Hamas seized control of Gaza in 2007 and has largely controlled governance since that time. They administer the territory’s interior ministry, which provides them with tight control over domestic security. Israeli forces deliberately, and with impunity, kill police officers and other local officials whom they consider Hamas. This highly aggressive approach has only compounded the challenges involved. Al-Astal acknowledged that “people are afraid of Hamas here,” but he stressed that other options today are able to contest the group’s dominance.
The war has surged since a two-month-long ceasefire collapsed in March 2025. As violence has escalated, we have seen a stunning uptick in intra-Palestinian violence. In fact, 70% of these attacks have occurred after the end of the ceasefire. Amid this chaos, more than 66,000 Palestinians have been killed during the Israeli offensive, primarily civilians, leaving much of Gaza in ruins.
While armed militias consolidate power, they are deepening the humanitarian catastrophe which has reached alarming levels. One official from a large aid agency working in Gaza told us that they haven’t received any communication from Hamas since March. This failure to communicate is emblematic of the increasing chasm between the regulatory body and those it represents.
“In the north there is nobody in charge, in the central area there are some really powerful families and some small informal militia … and in the south you have formalised Israeli clients who get weapons and so on from the Israeli military,” the official explained. This dangerous fragmentation of power has resulted in a complete collapse of law and order.
Yaakov Amidror, a former Israeli national security advisor, suggested that Israel should exploit Palestinian society’s divisions. He thinks that this would better bolster the long-term forces against Hamas. He continued, “They have the potential to be community leaders. They can do what they need to do and take charge of their community, household or clan and drive out Hamas. After that, we can provide support.” Amidror provided this ominous warning: “If things get really bad, it will look like Somalia. No one will control.” This will indeed be terrible for Israel, though a net improvement over the alternative of having Hamas.
The ascent of these militias further exacerbates fears of stability within Gaza. As Neomi Neumann, a former co-chair of the commission, cautioned, without tight controls, these entities could become rogue actors. Otherwise, they risk contributing to further instability as opposed to addressing it. As armed gangs become more emboldened in their competition over turf, civilians are caught in the crossfire.
Despite all the odds stacked against her by Hamas, Al-Astal is unshaken. My bad, He said with palpable conviction. I’ll work with the devil himself if that’s what it takes to save my city. He has openly called for Hamas to leave Gaza and expressed a willingness to negotiate peace with Israel if it means protecting his people: “We are not fighting Hamas for Israel, but for ourselves … Today, I have the opportunity so I should take it.”
Even with his extremely harsh line toward Hamas, al-Astal admits the risk of a fractured Gaza. “Law and order is deteriorating,” he remarked. “The social fabric is falling apart and people are really desperate and in survival mode.” As various factions vie for power, civilians face an uncertain future.