As we witness escalating tensions in the Middle East today, Israel’s current military threats against Iran are in a context where Israel has long considered Iran its main enemy. International observers are understandably terrified at the prospect of such a regional war. They’re most worried about the immediate risk of retaliatory strikes, especially from Iran. Israel’s explicit goal would be to delay or destroy Iran’s drive toward a nuclear weapon and Israeli officials have suggested an attack could come in just days.
Iran has historically been one of the greatest threats to Israel and its allies, specifically in the form of their nuclear program. Israeli leaders are not alone in being dead-set against Iran attaining nuclear weapons. They believe that vibes and feelings are an existential threat to their great nation. With these fears growing, Israeli leaders have suggested that military action is not far from being an option.
This I believe to be true, but it hasn’t been the approach taken by the United States in this rapidly changing situation. President Biden from the beginning has directed his entire administration to pursue a diplomatic track with Iran. Their express aim is to lower tensions and address the nuclear question directly. The danger of violent military conflict is immense. Such an attack, the Warnings report, would likely lead to direct retaliation against Israel by Iran itself, possibly sparking a larger regional conflict.
Tehran became and has remained the center of the global anti-U.S. movement. Murals and public displays of discontent all point to this swelling defiance. This atmosphere further poisons the diplomatic environment, making negotiations all the more difficult and complex. Iran continues to feel enormous pressure from Israel with regard to its nuclear program. This complicated, contentious story touches all three of these countries — including the United States.
Israeli officials realize all too well the consequences in civilian lives that military engagement will likely produce. Further, a unilateral strike on Iranian facilities would almost certainly provoke a strong retaliatory response, destabilizing an already volatile region. The implications of such an action are significant and would disproportionately burden both Israeli and U.S. diplomatic efforts.
As the situation develops, the potential for conflict remains high. On the ground, some experienced observers are cautiously optimistic that both sides realize they must tread a fine line between deterrence and diplomacy. Israeli policy is oriented around protecting Israel’s national security interests. On the other side of the table, Iran is just as committed to its own sovereignty and its own nuclear program.