In a surprising diplomatic move, officials from the United States and Russia convened in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, to explore potential economic and investment opportunities that could emerge from resolving the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. The discussions marked a significant shift from the Biden administration’s previous stance to isolate Moscow. Notably absent from the talks were Ukrainian representatives, raising concerns about the implications for Kyiv and the broader European community.
The talks, held in the Saudi capital, provided an opportunity for Saudi Arabia and its de facto leader, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, to assert themselves on the global stage. This positioning as a key intermediary highlights Riyadh's growing influence in international diplomacy. The meeting brought together high-profile figures such as Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and President Vladimir Putin’s chief foreign policy adviser, Yuri Ushakov. On the American side, US National Security Adviser Mike Waltz and Steve Witkoff, former President Donald Trump’s special envoy to the Middle East, were in attendance.
The discussions underscored the rapid pace at which the US is attempting to halt the conflict, an effort that has alarmed European allies and Ukraine. European leaders are struggling to maintain a united front amidst internal divisions over military deployments to Ukraine, with France convening an emergency meeting of EU nations and the UK to coordinate a response to these developments.
The absence of Ukrainian officials from the talks has raised questions about the nature of any potential peace agreement. Russia has reiterated demands reminiscent of those made before its full-scale invasion in 2021, including Ukraine adopting a neutral status and the cessation of NATO’s weapon deployment to member states that joined after 1997.
"We explained to our colleagues today what President Putin has repeatedly stressed: that the expansion of NATO, the absorption of Ukraine by the North Atlantic alliance, is a direct threat to the interests of the Russian Federation, a direct threat to our sovereignty." – Sergei Lavrov
Meanwhile, the US has emphasized its desire for a permanent resolution to the conflict.
"This needs to be a permanent end to the war and not a temporary end as we’ve seen in the past." – Antony Walz
This sentiment reflects a broader consensus among Western leaders for a strong and lasting peace in Ukraine.
"We seek a strong and lasting peace in Ukraine. To achieve this, Russia must end its aggression, and this must be accompanied by strong and credible security guarantees for the Ukrainians." – Emmanuel Macron
Despite these aspirations, significant hurdles remain. Russia’s new conditions for peace include an end to NATO’s expansion in Eastern Europe, a stance reiterated by Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Maria Zakharova. Such demands continue to complicate diplomatic efforts.
The talks in Riyadh also highlighted Saudi Arabia's strategic role as a mediator between Russia and the US. The kingdom's involvement reflects its broader ambitions to enhance its diplomatic influence beyond regional issues. For Russia, these discussions serve as an opportunity to negotiate terms that align with its strategic interests while easing tensions with the West.
President Putin has not publicly commented on the outcomes of the talks. However, during a recent phone call with former President Trump, he expressed Russia's desire to "settle the reasons for the conflict." This statement suggests that Moscow remains open to dialogue under certain conditions.
In Europe, these developments have prompted varied reactions. While some leaders welcome any progress towards peace, others express skepticism over Russia's intentions. French President Emmanuel Macron has stressed that any resolution must include robust security guarantees for Ukraine.
"An end to the Ukraine conflict must be acceptable to all involved, including Ukraine, Europe, and Russia." – Marco Rubio
As negotiations continue, experts predict that discussions will inevitably involve contentious topics such as territorial disputes and security assurances.
"The practical reality is that there’s going to be some discussion of territory and there’s going to be discussion of security guarantees, those are just fundamental basics." – Antony Walz