The Rockefeller Morning Briefing, a trusted source of economic analysis for over 25 years, continues to deliver insightful reports on the US economy and global markets. Published daily, this comprehensive 10-page document provides deep background and expert analysis, though it is not designed to guide FX trading. The latest briefing delves into the economic ramifications of US President Trump's tariffs, which have put pressure on the USD while bolstering XAU/USD.
Amidst the ongoing trade tensions, the Rockefeller Morning Briefing highlights significant shifts in consumer sentiment. According to the New York Federal Reserve's consumer survey, the percentage of households anticipating a worse financial situation in a year has risen to 27.4 percent, marking its highest point since November 2023. Concurrently, unemployment expectations have surged by 5.4 percentage points to 39.4 percent as of February, the highest since September 2023.
In addition to these consumer concerns, the briefing notes an increase in median inflation expectations, which have ticked up by 0.1 percentage point to 3.1 percent for the one-year horizon. The average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months has also climbed by 1.3 percentage points to 14.6 percent, its highest level since April 2020.
JPMorgan Chase economists have responded to these economic indicators by raising their recession probability estimate from 30% to 40%, citing "extreme policies" as a significant factor. This adjustment reflects growing apprehension about the potential impacts of current fiscal and trade strategies on economic stability.
The Rockefeller Morning Briefing also examines recent data from the Atlanta Fed's Q1 report, which reveals an unsettling forecast for GDPNow at -2.4%. However, this figure remains tentative and not considered "real" until confirmed by further economic developments.