In recent statements, Russian President Vladimir Putin has invoked significant historical parallels as he outlined his intentions regarding the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. On the opening day of this summer’s massive exhibition in Moscow celebrating Peter the Great, Putin made a stunning declaration. He said that his aspirations for retaking territory are similar to the tsar’s desire to regain what he viewed as historically Russian territory. At its worst, this rhetoric reveals a disturbing level of devotion to a long-drawn war. Russian officials have left no doubt that they intend to fight as long as it takes.
Putin originally made the parallel to Peter the Great in June 2022, solidifying for him the narrative of territorial reclamation. He articulated his steadfast demands, which have remained unchanged since the war’s inception: Ukraine must cede territory, significantly downsize its military forces, and guarantee that it will not join NATO or host Western troops on its soil. He emphasized this point by stating, “He did not take anything from them, he returned [what was Russia’s].”
The Russian leader’s confidence seems to be buttressed by a few things. As Russia has gained new incremental victories on the battlefield, Europe’s response to the conflict has appeared to lose steam. In addition, the home front has been well-tuned to sustain a long military campaign. Russian officials seem to think they can just outlast and demoralize the military support their adversaries offer. This view comes from the terrible environment they’re operating in right now.
Vladimir Medinsky, an official in the Russian government, echoed Putin’s sentiments by drawing on Peter the Great’s historical context. He cited the tsar’s protracted war with Sweden (1700–1721) as a warning. He cautioned that Moscow is prepared to continue fighting until it has reached its objectives. Medinsky’s intent was at least as plain during the negotiations between Ukraine and Russia in Istanbul’s Dolmabahçe Palace, when he stated vehemently, “We are ready to fight a year, two, three – as long as it takes.” He added, “We don’t want war. We fought with Sweden for 21 years. How long are you ready to fight?”
During all of these developments, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has been doing a full-court press to show that he is serious about peace talks. In recent months he has moved left and right to accommodate U.S. demands, supposedly to allow for a resumption of talks. He is still skeptical of Russia’s intentions. He rejected the Russian delegation as “theatre props” and claimed meaningful negotiations are impossible given their present stance.
Zelenskyy’s weariness was evident as he addressed journalists at Ukraine’s embassy, reflecting the toll the ongoing conflict has taken on leadership and morale. He has urged the international community to apply pressure on Russia, emphasizing that “you have to pressurise the side that does not want to end the war.” His administration has quite deliberately tried to present Ukraine as eager to negotiate while at the same time planning on fighting Russia militarily over the long term.
Margarita Simonyan, a prominent Russian media figure, added another layer of complexity to the situation by warning Ukraine that if it fails to settle now, Moscow may escalate its demands beyond the four occupied regions and Crimea. She added with menacing undertones, “Then it will be eight [regions],” raising the specter of further Kremlin territorial expansion.
Putin and his officials highlight historical context to explain and defend their actions. This tactic further acts as a grim portent of the dangers that inviting an endless war can bring. Peter the Great unleashed a 21-year war of horrors on Sweden. This expensive undertaking sheds light on the dangers of prolonged military interventions. The Great Northern War eventually cost millions of lives and drained the wealth of both powers.
With dreams of a peace settlement seeming to recede, the chances of a grinding war of attrition happening ever more probable. The contrasting positions of the Russian and Ukrainian leadership underscore the complexities involved in reaching a ceasefire or diplomatic resolution. Both sides appear ever more committed to their positions, and the chances of reaching a middle ground grow smaller by the day.