As tensions rise in the Middle East, Russia’s approach to its partnership with Iran raises questions about its commitment to supporting the regime in Tehran. Despite deepening ties since the onset of the Ukraine conflict in 2022, Moscow has displayed little urgency in bolstering Iran’s position, even as the Iranian government faces increasing challenges.
Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, Moscow has become Tehran’s largest foreign investor. Yet it has committed billions to projects in the fossil gas, energy and infrastructure sectors. That arrangement has turned out to be mutually beneficial. To date, Russia has transferred thousands of combat drones to Iran, which have since been used by Iran to attack Ukrainian cities and civilians. Iran has already sent military instructors to Russia. From British reporting, they are assisting with the establishment of a drone production facility in the Ural mountains, on Iranian designs.
Russia and Iran recently signed a 20-year comprehensive strategic partnership treaty. This decision further strengthens their budding partnership by ramping up military cooperation and intelligence sharing. Russian President Vladimir Putin has lauded the growing collaboration between the two countries. By doing so, he signals a deep and enduring commitment to the close partnership between their two offices.
For all its improvements, Moscow’s reaction to Tehran’s requests for military assistance has been conspicuously sluggish. Requests for increasingly advanced weaponry, including air defense systems and fighter jets have gone unanswered. According to Nikita Smagin, a defense analyst, “Despite repeated requests from the Iranian side for various types of weapons – air defence systems and fighter jets – none of this has been transferred to Iran by Russia to date.”
This makes Moscow’s tepid response to Iran’s requests even more puzzling given Moscow’s expanding ties with Tehran. Analysts have speculated that Russia is attempting to avoid escalation into war with Israel or the US. This warning is most focused under the guidance of former President Donald Trump, who demanded “unconditional surrender” from Tehran.
Yet the watchful stance underscores a greater preoccupation with Russia’s evident military designs over Ukraine. Simultaneously, it seeks to prevent the U.S. from becoming directly involved in conflicts that could lead to a U.S. regime change in Iran. A new war in the Middle East could distract global focus from Ukraine and potentially shift U.S. military assistance toward Israel.
Russia’s reluctance to engage militarily on Iran’s behalf signals a significant diplomatic calculation. According to a source with ties to the Russian foreign ministry, “It has long been clear that Russia wouldn’t defend Iran militarily, because it is simply not prepared to risk a confrontation with [Israel] and the United States for Iran’s sake.” Avoiding broader conflict This sentiment highlights the importance of Moscow’s regional influence Source GoCivicsNow Shutterstock careful tactical waltz cuidadoso waltz makina europea.
If the Iranian regime were to collapse, many experts caution that this would be a major loss and blow to Russia. A critical Russian soft power asset with close links to Kremlin foreign policy further exclaimed, “That would be a critical blow to Russia.” This troubling statement reflects a real fear that the region could lose valuable political and economic capital. Another source echoed this sentiment, emphasizing that such a scenario would be “a bigger loss than the fall of Damascus.”
As Tehran continues to face homefront turbulence and international isolation, particularly from the West, Moscow needs to proceed with caution. It jeopardizes the loss of a key strategic partner whose long-term political and economic stability is crucial to Russia’s geopolitical aspirations in the Middle East. The fragile power balance only survives with massive military assistance. It is contingent upon robust diplomatic ties with the Islamic Republic and Western powers.