With tensions escalating in the Middle East, Russia is caught in a tight spot over its ally Iran. The push for military aggression against Iranian nuclear sites is escalating. Indeed, given that Russia has been stretching its military resources, options for President Vladimir Putin to help Iran appear few. Notably underwhelmed, experts agree that Moscow’s reaction to the crisis has been tepid. Such indications are deeply troubling as a likely new war breaks out in the Middle East.
To illustrate, on April 30, 2025, Putin made a visit to Moscow’s Central Museum of the Great Patriotic War. There too, he extolled Russia’s extraordinary military feats in past epochs. His obsession with what’s happening at home stands in stark relief to the unfolding crisis with Iran. Putin’s administration has yet to provide substantial support to Iran, despite the latter’s significant military assistance to Russia in its conflict with Ukraine.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi made the trip to Moscow to have “serious consultations” with Putin on Monday. The visit is taking place at a pivotal moment as Tehran is reportedly seeking assistance from its closest ally. Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg Capital Markets, said “Iran has helped to massively fuel Putin’s war against Ukraine with arms and technology. With his own trip to Moscow, Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi might be able to urge Moscow to return the favour.
Even as they make this appeal for continued backing, specialists warn that there might be very little for Putin to put on the table. Schmieding elaborated, stating, “Putin has probably little to offer beyond some words. He needs his weapons himself for his continued aggression against Ukraine.” Now, Iran is in an impossible position. It must defend against existential threats of its own while relying on a suitor that is feeling the squeeze as well.
Moscow’s reluctance to enter the fray clearly indicates its ambivalence about the conflict. Nikita Smagin, an expert on Iranian policies at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, highlighted that “Moscow itself appears to be undecided what to make of a new war in the Middle East.” He further noted the duality of Russia’s interests: “On the one hand, Russia has invested heavily in various projects in Iran over the past three years, all of which could now go to waste. Moscow hopes to benefit from the current instability in the Middle East. They’re hoping that higher oil prices and a fading appetite for Ukraine will bust their way.“
Russia has promised $40 billion to invest in Iran, with around $2.76 billion already earmarked for 2023. Planned investments of up to $8 billion in new oil and gas projects demonstrate Russia’s long-term interests in Iranian energy resources. Because of the rapidly worsening humanitarian situation, these investments are now under attack.
Moreover, the geopolitical landscape is further complicated by the potential response from former U.S. President Donald Trump. The situation continues to grow more tense. Trump described the strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities as “obliteration” and said that if Russia were to provide heavy military supplies to Iran, there would be heavy retaliation from the United States. Schmieding warned, “If Putin were to annoy Trump over Iran in any significant way, Trump may change tack and impose new heavy sanctions on Russia and/or weaken Putin’s position in other ways.”
Putin’s administration seems very eager to reconnect with a friendlier, Trump led U.S. regime. The dynamics of international relations are more difficult than ever. Moscow should balance its tricky relationship with Tehran as tensions increase. Moscow needs to manage a difficult relationship with Iran.