This is especially true since Russia’s power as a diplomatic actor in the Middle East has fallen off a cliff. This drop is largely due to Russia’s brutal war on Ukraine. The power dynamics have completely flipped. This was underscored when Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to delay an anticipated Russia-Arab world summit that had been slated for Wednesday. The summit was intended to serve as a platform to flaunt Moscow’s power over the region. Then it all quickly unraveled when a handful of leaders were able to definitely participate.
Putin’s decision to delay the summit appeared to be a strategic move to avoid conflicting with former President Donald Trump’s initiative in the region. Observers noted that this postponement marks a significant moment, reflecting how Russia’s standing has eroded since the Ukraine war began.
The Russia-Arab world summit was intended to serve as a forum for divining new directions in security and energy ties. Furthermore, it underscored Russia’s continued interest in Middle Eastern affairs. The lack of interest from regional leaders underscored a broader trend: “When it comes to all the big developments, the major players in the region don’t look towards Moscow anymore,” stated Hanna Notte, a political analyst specializing in Russian foreign policy.
Putin had other reasons to hope for Trump’s success in the Middle East. He proposed that this kind of success would result in truly historic achievements. He stated, “If Trump succeeds in accomplishing everything he set out to do, it would be a truly historic event.” Yet all this optimism has not led to any real, irreversible diplomatic victories on the ground for Russia.
Russia’s loss of influence is all the more notable considering what the country has done in the region in recent years. In 2015, Russia’s military intervention in Syria played a crucial role in preserving Bashar al-Assad’s regime, allowing Moscow to secure permanent naval and air bases along the Mediterranean coast. Not only did these bases reaffirm Russia’s strategic hold in the region, but they cemented Russia’s role as a key regional player.
Despite these gains, Dmitry Medvedev, former Russian president and current deputy chairman of the Security Council, recently downplayed the significance of the canceled summit. He commented on the futility of temporary agreements, stating, “Releasing Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners is a good thing, of course, but it will not solve anything.” Medvedev emphasized that without a full-fledged Palestinian state established according to UN resolutions, lasting peace remains elusive. “The war will continue. Everyone understands this.”
Additionally, after Russia’s role in recent conflicts—particularly Syria—many began to doubt Russia’s ability to play the role of impartial mediator. This was clearly evident earlier this month when Moscow was absent from any meaningful role in negotiations that won a delicate ceasefire in Gaza. This absence only added to its perceived authority and credibility within the region.
Further complicating these dynamic developments, Putin’s foreign policy miscalculations have ruptured relations with fellow members of the region’s core alliance. Putin used to have a particularly robust relationship with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Today, his intensifying ties with Palestinian groups as well as Iran have made matters more difficult. Yet Russia’s role as host for a series of Hamas delegations for ceasefire talks has highlighted this transformation and deeply entrenched Russia’s isolation from its traditional allies.
Despite these challenges, Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s Foreign Minister, asserted that Russia remains open to contributing to Middle East peace efforts if invited. This position is an admirable attempt to remain in the present. The region is experiencing an increasingly competitive environment with other regional and global powers rising to prominence.
Hanna Notte remarked on the broader implications of Russia’s diminishing role: “Russia’s diplomatic role in the Middle East has declined as a result of the Ukraine war.” She argued that the summits could potentially institutionalize or reinforce Moscow’s narrative of being an active player in the region. They do not retake its title as the biggest player.