This development became acute after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in early 2022. This fleet is comprised of a mere 900 to 1,200 vessels globally. It is crucial to accelerating Russia’s war effort economically, at the same time as raising dangers to global security. The ensuing chaos sparked legitimate outcry from European countries and international maritime watchdogs.
The shadow fleet continues to grow. Russian-affiliated ships are increasing their participation in nefarious activities, including drone attacks, interference with undersea communications cables, and reconnaissance of U.S. critical infrastructure. These operations have raised the alarm, not least because of their implications for the stability of the globe’s most dangerous region. As always, Russia is tightening the screws. They are audaciously staking their claim on at least some of those former shadow fleet tankers, as a direct provocation to Europe.
Recent attacks, such as last month’s Aqaba incident, have highlighted the immediate need to tackle the emerging risk of the shadow fleet. In a notable exception, earlier this year Estonia and France interdicted the tanker Boracay. This one provided a dramatic window into the operational reach of these vessels in peacetime. Baaj Shipping, a brass plate company registered in Seychelles, purchased the Boracay in 2020. This single tanker serves as a case study of ownership and operation in the obfuscated world—and industry—of shipping.
In 2022, the U.S. Treasury Department moved against such a vessel, the Skipper. They punished it because they accused it of carrying oil to Iran’s Revolutionary Guards and Hezbollah. In a high-stakes raid, U.S. special forces rappelled from helicopters to seize the Skipper on the open water off Venezuela’s coast. This particular incident serves as a reminder of how far authorities might have to go just to stem the tide of the shadow fleet’s havoc.
For maritime expert Gonzalo Saiz Erausquin, the shadow fleet is a return to business as usual. Its expansion since the start of the war in Ukraine has been extraordinary.
“But [it] has expanded drastically after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. That saw what we call the shadow fleet explode to some 900-1,200 vessels globally.” – Gonzalo Saiz Erausquin
In fact, the shadow fleet’s underhanded operations reflect parallel approaches by Iran and Venezuela across the years. Experts warn that as long as market participants perceive economic incentives to evade sanctions as outweighing risks, these illicit activities will likely persist.
As Tomer Raanan, maritime security expert, recently explained, fraudulent flags are a huge challenge. These flags have only continued to complicate the shipping industry’s registry system.
“Earlier this year, we noticed several sanctioned tankers suddenly began broadcasting AIS messages indicating that they are registered with Malawi.” – Tomer Raanan
The shadow fleet’s engagement in nefarious activity goes further than just sanctions evasion. Russia-linked vessels have been implicated in various incidents that threaten maritime security.
“We found a website purporting to be the Malawi Maritime Administration which did not have a Malawi government domain and was later confirmed by Malawi officials as fraudulent. Since then, Lloyd’s List has uncovered an elaborate fraudulent flag operation linking over 20 separate fake registry websites, many of which are using the same holding text.” – Tomer Raanan
He pointed to recent attacks in which Russian ships cut undersea cables. He was able to shed light on how Moscow views the shadow fleet as a strategic asset to be protected.
“Recent incidents underscore this threat. Russia-linked vessels have been implicated in drone incursions, cable disruptions and reconnaissance of critical infrastructure,” said Chris Kremidas-Courtney.
This increasing cost burden has spurred European leaders to adopt a tougher line against these ships plying their waters. In the case of France, President Emmanuel Macron has already indicated he is more willing to challenge these threats head-on.
“The Eagle S [a suspected shadow tanker] severed undersea cables after cycling through multiple flags, and Estonia’s attempted interdiction of the Jaguar crude oil tanker prompted the scrambling of Russian fighter jets – proof that Moscow sees this fleet as a strategic asset and is willing to protect it,” Kremidas-Courtney said.
The response from European nations highlights an urgent need to address the proliferation of fraudulent flags and falsely flagged ships. Such incidents must not go unchallenged, as the European Union recently discovered after the shadow fleet’s most notorious episode claimed thousands of lives.
“We have decided to take a step forward by adopting policies to impede suspicious ships,” – Emmanuel Macron
The response from European nations highlights an urgent need to address the proliferation of fraudulent flags and falsely flagged ships. As evidenced by recent events, Europe cannot afford to allow incidents related to the shadow fleet to pass unanswered.