In a landscape marked by shifting economic perceptions, recent data reveals a dynamic change in the public's view of the US economy. As of now, 40% of Americans believe that tariffs imposed on foreign goods are paid by the exporting countries. Among Republicans, sentiment has notably shifted, with 39% expressing optimism about the economy's improvement, a significant jump from just 8% last May. This Republican rebound highlights a stark contrast with the views of independents and Democrats.
The perception of a recession in the US economy shows notable fluctuations across political lines. Last May, 53% of independents thought the nation was in recession, though that figure has decreased to 46%. Democrats, on the other hand, have shown increased pessimism. Presently, 69% believe the economy is worsening, a sharp rise from 36% in the previous year. In contrast, only 11% of Democrats now think the economy is getting better, a drop from 32% since last May.
Tariffs remain a contentious issue among Americans. While 26% believe that former President Trump's tariffs will positively impact the US economy, only 33% of Republicans think these tariffs will improve their personal finances. The overall sentiment regarding recession also varies significantly. Currently, 43% of Republicans think the US is in a recession, a decrease from 67% last year. In comparison, 62% of independents predict a recession in 2025, and 60% of Americans overall share this outlook.
Despite these perceptions, it's important to note that the US is not currently experiencing a recession and hasn't since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic. John Gerzema, CEO of Harris Poll, encapsulated the fluctuating nature of public sentiment with an apt analogy:
"The public’s economic perceptions now resemble a kid’s game of tetherball – slamming back and forth from bad to good based on whose party is in office," – John Gerzema, CEO of Harris Poll.
Republican sentiment towards the economy reflects a marked shift compared to last year. This resurgence in confidence contrasts sharply with the views among Democrats and independents. The data indicates that only 39% of Republicans considered the economy to be improving last May. Now, this number has risen to 39%, suggesting a renewed optimism influenced by political leadership and policy changes.
Democrats have shown increased concern over the economy's trajectory. A substantial majority now believes that economic conditions are deteriorating. Only 11% think there is an improvement, down significantly from last year's 32%. This downturn in Democratic confidence underscores the political divide in economic outlooks.
Independents maintain a more balanced perspective on economic conditions. While their belief in a current recession has decreased slightly from 53% to 46%, a significant portion still anticipates economic challenges ahead. Their cautious views reflect broader concerns about potential future recessions, with 62% predicting such an event by 2025.
Tariffs continue to be a polarizing topic within American discourse. While some Americans see potential benefits from Trump's tariff policies, skepticism remains high. Only one-third of Republicans believe tariffs will positively impact their personal finances, reflecting apprehensions about trade policies' direct effects on individual economic well-being.
The looming question of recession remains prevalent among Americans. Despite not being in a recession since the Covid-19 pandemic's onset, public anxiety persists. This concern is evident as 43% of Republicans still perceive the country to be in recession, even though this figure has decreased from last year's 67%. Meanwhile, predictions about a recession in 2025 remain high across political affiliations.